Dogecoin Price Risks 9% Drop After 200-Day EMA Rejection

Dogecoin (DOGE) has gone down by 8% in the past 7 days, outpacing the tokens of all other altcoins in the top 10 during this period, as market participants don’t seem to be willing to pile into memecoins just yet.

Trading volumes for DOGE briefly jumped in the past week, following the release of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) newly proposed rules for the crypto industry and the Treasury Department’s decision to double their bond buybacks.

DOGE Volumes Drop Sharply as Interest in Memecoins Remains Weak

A total of 3.4 billion DOGE exchanged hands on August 21 — the highest single-day amount since April this year. However, data from Santiment shows that volumes remain quite low compared to historical levels.

At the time of writing, the 30-day moving average for this metric sits at 665 million DOGE, nearing the lowest level since February 2024, back when the top memecoin was trading at a similar price to today’s.

The market’s interest in memecoins as a whole has waned during this bear market, as speculators got roasted during the October 10 flash crash, losing hundreds of millions in the process.

Moreover, DOGE has struggled to recover and has lagged other altcoins during the latest rally. On a year-to-date (YTD) basis, the token is still sitting on a 30% loss, compared to a milder 17% and 10% retreat for Ethereum (ETH) and Bitcoin (BTC), respectively.

Interestingly, in previous instances when volumes have been this low, DOGE has rallied shortly afterward. The reason for that might be that low volumes confirm that bulls have capitulated — which is typically the last stage of a bear market.

If the smart money starts to accumulate at these levels, we could see DOGE progressively recovering in the near term. However, the market still needs a strong catalyst to wake up. The SEC’s announcement may have kickstarted something, but was it enough?

Dogecoin Could Drop by 9% Before the Rally Resumes

Turning to the daily chart, we can see that DOGE just rejected a move above the 200-day exponential moving average (EMA). This was the first time that the token traded above this technical indicator since October 2025.

We had been expecting this move for months, as part of a normal reversion to the mean. However, this retreat indicates that buyers don’t have the necessary ammunition yet to reverse the downtrend.

DOGE has also lagged other tokens in this particular aspect, as ETH, BTC, and even Solana (SOL) are already trading above their 200-day EMA.

The $0.075 area appears to be the most relevant support area to watch in the next few days if bearish momentum accelerates. This implies a 9% downside risk for DOGE. If that demand zone holds, the token could recover and resume its rally shortly afterward.

This divergence between the performance of DOGE and other tokens indicates that market participants are being selective with their bets.

They are not yet spreading their cash among all horses. Instead, they are carefully choosing the tokens that they back, possibly filtering for those with the strongest real-world use cases at a point when multiple countries are starting to push for supportive legislation for the crypto space.

In contrast, if we break past the $0.10 level, it is highly likely that DOGE will rally to $0.12 next, meaning a 45% upside potential based on today’s price.