E-mini NASDAQ Trend Changes to Up on Trade Through 15260.00

March E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index futures are trading lower early Thursday as yesterday’s technology-fueled rally cooled as investors took a more cautious posture amid uncertainties around the outlook for inflation and interest rates.

We’re also likely seeing some position-squaring ahead of Thursday morning’s U.S. consumer price index (CPI) report that could help the Federal Reserve determine the pace of monetary policy tightening.

At 05:47 GMT, March E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index futures are trading 14988.25, down 50.00 or -0.33%. On Wednesday, the Invesco QQQ Trust ETF (QQQ) settled at $366.77, up $7.65 or +2.13%.

On Wednesday, the index closed sharply higher as sentiment rose in reaction to a drop in long-term bond yields. Upbeat earnings reports also encouraged investors to buy.

In stock related news, Meta Platforms jumped about 5%, on track to end four sessions of deep declines that saw it lose almost a third of its value. Nvidia jumped over 5% and Microsoft added 1.7%.

Investors are awaiting consumer prices data, due to be released at 13:30 GMT on Thursday, for new clues on the Federal Reserve’s plans to hike interest rates. An unexpectedly strong jobs report last week raised concerns of a more aggressive move by the central bank.

The inflation data is expected to show a 0.5% month-over-month increase in January, and 7.3% for the year, according to economists polled by Reuters.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart, however, momentum is trending higher.

A trade through 15260.00 will change the main trend to up. This will make 14362.75 a new main bottom.

On the downside, a minor pivot at 14811.25 is the nearest support. This is followed by a long-term retracement zone at 14515.75 to 13984.25. Inside this zone is another pivot at 14515.75.

On the upside, the short-term range is 16659.50 to 13706.00. Its retracement zone at 15182.75 to 15531.25 is the nearest resistance area.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

The direction of the March E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index on Thursday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the minor pivot at 14811.25.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 14811.50 will indicate the presence of buyers. If this is able to generate enough upside momentum then look for the rally to possibly extend into the short-term 50% level at 15182.75, followed by the main top at 15260.00.

Taking out 15260.00 will change the main trend to up. This could trigger an acceleration into the short-term Fibonacci level at 15531.25. This level is also a trigger point for an acceleration to the upside.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 14811.50 will signal the presence of sellers. This could trigger a sharp break into 14515.75.

If 14515.75 fails then look for the selling to possibly extend into 14362.75, followed by 14299.50. If the latter fails then look for a further break into 13984.25.