E-mini S&P 500 Index (ES) Futures Technical Analysis – Trader Reaction to 3351.00 Sets the Tone

September E-mini S&P 500 Index futures are inching higher shortly before the cash market opening on Friday despite Chinese economic news which pointed to a labored recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic. Figures earlier in the day showed a slower-than-expected rise in Chinese industrial production and a surprise decline in retail sales.

The index is likely being underpinned by a mixed U.S. retail sales report. Core Retail Sales improved 1.9%, besting the 1.3% forecast. Retail Sales, however, missed the 2.0% estimate with a 1.2% reading.

At 12:37 GMT, September E-mini S&P 500 Index futures are trading 3369.75, up 2.00 or +0.06%.

Perhaps putting a lid on prices is the uncertainty over the timing of an agreement to provide more stimulus measures to support the economy, particularly the battered jobs sector.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. A trade through 3382.50 will signal a resumption of the uptrend. The main trend will change to down on a move through the nearest main bottom at 3195.00. This is highly unlikely today, but we could see a change to down in the minor trend.

The minor trend is also up. A trade through 3319.50 will change the minor trend to down. This will also shift momentum to the downside.

The minor range is 3319.50 to 3382.50. Its 50% level at 3351.00 is controlling the short-term direction of the index.

The short-term range is 3195.00 to 3382.50. If the minor trend changes to down then look for the selling to possibly extend into its retracement zone at 3288.75 to 3266.50.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

Based on the early price action and the current price at 3369.75, the direction of the September E-mini S&P 500 Index on Friday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the pivot at 3351.00.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 3351.00 will indicate the presence of buyers. If this move creates enough upside momentum then look for the rally to possibly extend into the high at 3382.50, followed by the all-time high at 3396.50.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 3351.00 will signal the presence of sellers. This could trigger a break into the minor bottom at 3319.50. If this level fails then momentum will shift to the downside with the next target a 50% level at 3288.75.