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James Hyerczyk

The Euro is trading higher at the mid-session after reversing earlier weakness. Traders are saying aggressive buying by the Swiss National Bank may have been responsible for the move. Additionally, thin market conditions ahead of Wednesday’s Fed decisions and Thursday’s European Central Bank monetary policy meeting may have contributed to the volatility.

At 12:55 GMT, the EUR/USD is trading 1.0873, up 0.0046 or +0.42%.

In other news, European Union governments risk a clash with the European Union executive arm over their support for travel firms issuing vouchers for cancelled holiday deals without giving customers the option of cash refunds as required by EU law, diplomats said.

In economic news, Spain’s Unemployment Rate came in better-than-expected at 14.4%. Experts were looking for a reading of 15.6%.

The U.S. Goods Trade Balance widened to -64.2 Billion. Preliminary Wholesale Inventories improved and the S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI rose 3.5%, better than the 3.1% forecast.


Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart, however, momentum is trending higher. A trade through 1.0991 will change the main trend to up.

Creating the upside momentum is the confirmation of the closing price reversal bottom from April 24. A trade through 1.0727 will negate the chart pattern and signal a resumption of the downtrend.

The minor trend is up. The minor trend changed to up when buyers took out the last minor top at 1.0885. This was further confirmation of the shift in momentum.

The main range is 1.0636 to 1.1146. The EUR/USD is currently trading inside its retracement zone at 1.0892 to 1.0831. This zone is controlling the near-term direction of the Forex pair.


Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

Based on the early price action and the current price at 1.0873, the direction of the EUR/USD the rest of the session on Tuesday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the 50% level at 1.0892.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 1.0892 will indicate the presence of buyers. If this move creates enough upside momentum then look for an acceleration to the upside with the next major target a main top at 1.0991.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 1.0892 will signal the presence of sellers. This could lead to a retest of the Fibonacci level at 1.0831. If this fails then look for the selling to possibly extend into a minor pivot at 1.0808.

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