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James Hyerczyk

The Euro is trading sharply lower against the U.S. Dollar on prospects of a national coronavirus lockdown in France, with implied volatility gauges in the common currency hitting multi-month highs as traders positioned for next week’s U.S. election.

At 12:53 GMT, the EUR/USD is trading 1.1721, down 0.0076 or -0.65%.

In France, President Emmanuel Macron will give a televised address on Wednesday, amid media reports that the French government may impose a lockdown from midnight on Thursday.

With news that Pfizer has not yet been able to determine how well its late-phase COVID-19 vaccine protects against the disease adding to the cautious mood, riskier assets fell across markets.

One-week implied volatility in the Euro rose to its highest in nearly seven months. That suggests investors are preparing for sharp price moves, with the biggest focus on the United States as it struggles to contain its coronavirus epidemic as people vote early in large numbers for what promises to be a pivotal election on November 3.


Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart, however, momentum is trending lower. A trade through 1.1688 will change the main trend to down. A move through 1.1881 will signal a resumption of the uptrend.

The minor trend is down.  This is controlling the momentum. The minor trend changed to down on a move through 1.1787 earlier today.

The minor range is 1.1688 to 1.1881. Its retracement zone at 1.1762 to 1.1785 is new resistance.

The next downside target is the support cluster at 1.1691 to 1.1688.

The short-term range is 1.2011 to 1.1612. Its retracement zone at 1.1811 to 1.1859 is another resistance area.


Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

If the downside momentum continues to build then look for the selling to extend into 1.1691 to 1.1688. The latter is a potential trigger point for an acceleration to the downside with another support cluster at 1.1616 to 1.1612 the next likely downside target.

On the upside, resistance is layered at 1.1762, 1.1785 and 1.1811.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

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