EUR/USD Price Forecast – Euro Recover Slightly

The Euro fell initially during the trading session on Friday as we continue to see a lot of concerns about the EU coming out of the coronavirus situation. One of the biggest glaring issues with the European Union is the fact that they cannot even agree on how to approach this situation, and as the EU is not federalized, it is a microcosm of the major flaws with the Union itself. At this point, rallies will be sold into and I believe that the 1.09 level is going to be the new “ceiling” in the range. That being said, the downside is probably close to the 1.0650 level.

EUR/USD Video 27.04.20

The US dollar of course will move with the US Treasury market, which continues to see a lot of inflows, which means that there are needs for US dollars by funds to buy those assets. Ultimately, I do believe that we are looking at a market that is a simple “fading the rallies” type of scenario. I also believe that the 1.0650 level underneath will be exceedingly difficult to break down through, but if we do it is a sign that we are going to the 1.05 handle. Longer-term, we are getting close to a potential trend change, but I am thinking more along the lines of later this year, not right now. Overall, I am a seller, but I need to see rallies to fade in order to do so as the market tends to be very choppy and dominated by high-frequency traders more than anything else. I have no scenario at the moment in which a willing to buy the Euro.