It could be a big day ahead for the majors. Will Trump veto or sign the HK Bill?
European equities found much-needed support at the end of the week, with the EuroStoxx600 rising by 0.44% to lead the way. The DAX30 and CAC40 both saw a more modest gain of 0.20% each.
Economic data and positive commentary from the U.S on trade provided much-needed support on the day.
On Friday, Trump announced that the U.S and China were getting close to a phase 1 trade agreement, suggesting that tensions had eased.
The upside was limited, however, as the Senate and House of Representatives had passed HK Bills to protect the rights of HK protestors. Trump has yet to sign or veto the Bills at the time of writing.
It was a busy day on the Eurozone economic calendar on Friday. Key stats included prelim November private sector PMI numbers out of France, Germany, and the Eurozone.
France’s service sector PMI held steady at 52.9, while the manufacturing PMI rose from 50.7 to 51.6, leading to a rise in the composite from 52.6 to 52.7.
From Germany, the manufacturing PMI rose from 42.1 to 43.8, while the services PMI slipped from 51.6 to 51.3. The pickup in manufacturing sector activity contributed to a rise in the composite from 48.9 to 49.2.
For the Eurozone, the manufacturing PMI rose from 45.9 to 46.6, while the services PMI fell from 52.2 to 51.5. The mixed results left the composite PMI down from 50.6 to 50.3.
According to the Eurozone’s composite PMI,
The PMIs provided little support for the DAX, however, which dipped into the red before finding support later in the session.
2nd estimate GDP numbers out of Germany for the 3rd quarter had a muted impact, with the numbers in line with 1st estimates.
From the U.S, a pickup in private sector activity provided further support to the majors late in the day. The manufacturing PMI rose from 51.3 to 52.2, with the services PMI rising from 50.6 to 51.6 in November.
For the DAX: It was a bullish day for the auto sector, as the markets responded to Trump’s positive comments. Daimler led the way on the DAX30, rallying by 1.98%, with Continental, BMW and Volkswagen also found strong support. The trio rose by 0.73%, 0.61%, and 0.48% respectively.
It was also a positive day for the banks. Deutsche Bank rose by 0.35%, with Commerzbank up by 1.59%.
From the CAC, it was a positive day for the banks. Soc Gen led the way, rallying by 1.45%. BNP Paribas and Credit Agricole saw more modest gains of 0.10% and 0.68% respectively.
Positive updates on trade also provided support to French Autos. Peugeot rose by 0.36%, with Renault up by 1.19% on the day.
The VIX fell by 6.02% on Friday. Reversing a 2.74% rise from Thursday, the VIX ended the day at 12.3.
A pickup in risk appetite weighed on the VIX, as economic data out of the U.S and positive updates on trade led to a rise in the U.S equity markets.
It’s a relatively busy day ahead on the Eurozone economic calendar. Key stats due out of the Eurozone Germany’s IFO Business Climate Index, Business Expectations and Current Assesmentfigures for November…
We can expect the numbers to provide direction in the early part of the session.
Outside of the numbers, expect updates from Beijing and Washington on trade to have a greater influence on the day.
There was plenty of uncertainty over the weekend on whether Trump would sign or veto the HK Bill, with Trump reportedly saying that he might veto the Bill.
This could be the defining moment in the week.
In the futures market, at the time of writing, the Dow was up by 48 points.
With over 20 years of experience in the finance industry, Bob has been managing regional teams across Europe and Asia and focusing on analytics across both corporate and financial institutions. Currently he is covering developments relating to the financial markets, including currencies, commodities, alternative asset classes, and global equities.