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Gold Price Forecast – Gold Rises with Falling Rates

By: 
Christopher Lewis

Gold bounces slightly to kick off the Friday session. This is a pattern that we have seen more than once: traders see falling rates, and gold bounces. The question is can we get lower rates for any significant amount of time?

Gold Technical Analysis

Daily candlestick chart of Gold Futures on TradingView showing price rebounding to 4,210.9, trading just below EMAs of 4,314.6 and 4,327.2.
Daily chart of Gold Futures (GC1!) on TradingView with price at 4,210.9 edging above the 4,000–4,200 support zone.

The gold market has rallied a little bit in the early part of the trading session here on Friday as interest rates in America are starting to drift a little bit lower. That is a welcome relief for those looking to push gold higher, with interest rates being the major problem gold has faced as of late.

I do find it interesting that we’re basically at the top of a demand range between $4,000 and $4,200. If we can maintain this attitude, we might have a chance for gold to rally, but the rate situation will be worth watching.

10-year Yield in the United States Is at 5.246%

While elevated, it is definitely better than what we had been seeing. We’ve dropped about 8 or 9 basis points over the last couple of days, so that’s starting to create a little bit of a hopeful attitude in the gold market.

That being said, we are heading into the weekend, and we could get more of those Middle Eastern headlines out there that make the bond market start to price in energy inflation. It might be a little bit difficult to buy gold and hang on through the weekend, so we’ll see what comes of this on Friday.

It wouldn’t surprise me at all to see a little bit of sideways action, but we are starting to see a little bit of a push, at least an attempt, if nothing else, to try to rally. This is a market that remains tight, but eventually, we should get clarity.

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About the Author

Christopher LewisSenior Analyst

Chris is a proprietary trader with more than 20 years of experience across various markets, including currencies, indices and commodities. As a senior analyst at FXEmpire since the website’s early days, he offers readers advanced market perspectives to navigate today’s financial landscape with confidence.

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