Gold Price Forecast: Potential for Rebound or Continued Fall?

Bruce Powers
Published: Feb 14, 2024, 21:24 GMT+00:00

Falling ABCD pattern suggests gold could drop to 1,979; 200-Day MA at 1,965 could provide strong support.

Gold bullion, FX Empire

In this article:

Gold Forecast Video for 15.02.24 by Bruce Powers

Gold falls to a new retracement low of 1,984 on Wednesday and it is on track to complete the day with a bullish hammer candlestick pattern. Today’s low completed a 127.2% Fibonacci extension of the retracement of the advance off point B. Therefore, today may lead to a bounce to test prior support levels as resistance. A decisive rally above today’s high of 1,996 signals buyers getting more aggressive, and it should lead to a bounce.

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Following Strength, 2,002 Becomes First Target

The previous swing low of 2,002 at B would be the first target, followed by a minor swing low at 2,009. Moreover, a test of the top channel line or moving averages could also occur. Tuesday’s high of 2,031 is the price level to watch on the upside as the 50-Day MA currently matches it.

Declining ABCD Pattern Targets 2,002

Nevertheless, a falling ABCD pattern targets a lower price area of 1,979. The chance that it is eventually hit increased on yesterday’s bearish trend continuation signal as price fell below the prior trend low at 2,002. And it then accelerated its decline, indicating that the market recognizes the significance of the 2,002-support area. Also, the drop put natural gas well below the 50-Day MA for the first time since last September/October. Once the 50-Day line is broken it opens the door to the 200-Day MA.

200-Day Moving Average Remains at Risk of Being Tested

The 200-Day MA is down at 1,965. It has only been tested successfully once as support since gold moved back above it last October. It has a good chance of being support again, if gold falls that far. At least it can be considered as a possible minimum lower price target for now. Also, of note is the 1,973-swing low and monthly low at 1,973. That price area is also identified by the 50% retracement of the uptrend starting from the October 6 swing low.

Monthly Bear Trigger May Persist

On the monthly time frame (not shown), gold triggered a bearish breakdown of an inside month (January) this month. A drop below January’s low of 1,973 triggers a monthly bearish continuation of that decline. By itself, it would indicate that the chance of reaching the December low of 1,932 had increased.

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About the Author

Bruce boasts over 20 years in financial markets, holding senior roles such as Head of Trading Strategy at Relentless 13 Capital and Corporate Advisor at Chronos Futures. A CMT® charter holder and MBA in Finance, he's a renowned analyst and media figure, appearing on 150+ TV business shows.

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