WTIC
Spiking oil prices remain the greatest threat to the global economy heading into October. A decisive breakout above $110 would set the stage for fresh highs, potentially extending to $140+ if Saudi production remains offline for more than a few weeks.
Gold
Gold bottomed mid-year, in line with our expectations, and we likely just completed the first pullback in a re-emerging uptrend. This looks like a classic “sell the rumor, buy the news” correction ahead of this week’s Fed rate hike. Progressive closes above $4,400 would confirm an interim low (blue arrow). We see prices challenging $5,000 before year-end and $7,000+ in the second half of 2027.
Silver
Silver bottomed mid-year as forecasted, and prices likely reached an interim low this week at $62.32. Progressive closes above $70.00 would confirm an upside breakout, reinforcing our view that the white metals may outperform gold into year-end.
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Platinum made a slightly higher high in September, supporting underlying strength and our view that prices could outperform gold from here.
GDX
Gold miners completed a near-perfect three-wave pullback into ideal support at the bullish crossover of the 50- and 200-day moving averages. I think prices bottomed at $91.19, but that view requires a close above the $97.10 price gap for confirmation. Bigger picture, I think miners will continue to outperform into late 2027.
GDXJ
I think juniors bottomed on Wednesday in a classic “sell the rumor, buy the news” pullback. Prices need progressive closes above the $125.50 price gap to confirm a September interim low.
SILJ
If I’m correct about the white metal and miners outperforming gold from here, then SILJ could offer superior returns relative to physical metal. Near term, prices need a daily close above the $30.50 price gap to confirm a September interim low at $28.01.
Conclusion
After strong rallies from their mid-year lows, metals and miners corrected into September.
This pullback has all the hallmarks of a “sell the rumor, buy the news” event, supporting an immediate resumption of the uptrends.
Over the next several weeks, I’ll be keeping a close eye on the white metals and miners to confirm my outlook for outperformance extending into next year.
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