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David Becker

Gold prices rebounded from session lows rising 0.35%, despite a climb in the dollar. US yields initially moved higher following the stronger than expected US jobs report. But as the session wore on, yields declined as concerns over the spread of COVID-19 weighed on yields. This paved the way for higher gold prices. Concerns arose about the payroll numbers as permanent job losses continued to increase. Additionally, the survey period they BLS used to generate the payroll report ended on June 12, before states started to reclose their economies.

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Technical Analysis

Gold prices consolidated on Thursday. Prices tested support near the 10-day moving average at 1,766 and rebounded. Additional support is seen near the 50-day moving average at 1,727. Resistance is seen near the August 2012 highs at 1,791. Short term momentum has reversed and turned negative after turning positive as the fast stochastic whipsawed and generated a sell signal in overbought territory. The current reading on the fast stochastic is 85, above the overbought trigger level of 80 which could foreshadow a correction. Medium-term momentum remains positive as the MACD (moving average convergence divergence) histogram prints in the black with an upward sloping trajectory which points to higher prices.


US Employment Was Stronger than Expected

The Labor Department reported on Thursday that US nonfarm payrolls surged by 4.8 million in June and the unemployment rate fell to 11.1%. Expectations had been for a 2.9 million increase and a jobless rate of 12.4%. The report was released a day earlier than usual due to the July Fourth holiday. The jobs growth marked a big leap from the 2.7 million in May, which was revised up by 190,000. The June total is easily the largest single-month gain in U.S. history.

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