Gold (XAU/USD) & Silver Price Forecast: Gold and Silver Rally on Fed and Iran Risks

Gold News: Fed Pause Bets and Iran Risk Support Precious Metals

Support for gold and silver continued on August 24 due to softer US monetary policy, renewed geopolitical risk, and ongoing fiscal demand. The markets now expect the Federal Reserve will hold rates steady for September after weaker employment, retail sales and inflation data removed expectations of another rate hike. Even with higher long term yields, this still allows gold and silver to gain as the dollar has pulled back from recent highs.

Once again geopolitics is key. Washington is considering new, more stringent sanctions against Iran while the situation in the Strait of Hormuz and the Middle East continue to pose uncertainty. Gold is expected to see an increase in demand while also posing an inflation risk due to possible higher energy costs, making things more difficult for Fed policy.

The strong structural demand for gold continues. Central banks bought 289 metric tons, worth around $45 billion, in the second quarter, while China bought 20 metric tons in July. Global gold backed ETFs also returned to net inflows in July by 23 metric tons after two months of outflows.

Silver continues to see the benefit of a tight physical market. The Silver Institute expects a 6th consecutive worldwide deficit in 2026 while physical investment is also strong. Consumption of silver in the solar industry is decreasing; however, the use of silver in AI data centers, electronics, automotive systems, and power grid investments are of strong, structural demand.

Precious metals foresee a constructive but balanced outlook for August 24: as Fed bump expectations decline and geopolitics heightens, gold and silver benefit; whereas macro headwinds include increased inflation and bond yields.

Gold Technical Analysis: XAU/USD Tests Upper Channel Near $4,647 as Momentum Stays Strong

Gold is trading near $4,647 in a rising channel on the 4-hour chart. Prices for Gold are well above the 50-EMA at $4,453, and the 100-EMA at $4,359, supporting the short-term bullish sentiment for Gold. The prices of Gold are touching the upper boundary of the channel, indicating the rising buyers, however, the prices are nearing a point where the price of Gold will not be able to move upward easily.

Gold’s RSI is almost touching 73, indicating the price of Gold is in an overbought zone, and is likely to consolidate or retract. The immediate resistance is at $4,661 then at $4,729, $4,794 and $4,859. The supports zones for Gold are at $4,567, $4,508 and $4,448.

I believe Gold is in a bullish zone above $4,567. I also believe the prices for Gold will break the resistance at $4,661 and go to the bullish zone of $4,729 to $4,794. The RSI indicates the price of Gold is overbought, thus a consolidation in the bullish zone at $4,567 will not affect the bullish sentiment for Gold.

Silver Technical Analysis: XAG/USD Consolidates Near $69 as Rising Channel Remains Intact

The price for Silver is at $69.02 in a rising channel on the 4-hour chart after a strong impulse move from the lower $60’s. The price for Silver is above the 50- EMA at $66.18 and the 100-EMA at $64.36, thus supporting the bullish sentiment for Silver. The recent candles are consolidating near the $69.90 resistance, indicating a breakout, and are not a reversal.

With the RSI around 62, there is good momentum without being excessively overbought. The next targets above the market are $69.90, $71.03, and $72.39. The first target below the market is $68.39 and is followed by $66.54, $64.19, and $62.75.

I would say that while silver remains above $68.39, the outlook remains positive. A break above $69.90 would target $71.03 and $72.39. If silver trades below $66.54, the positive outlook would still remain; however, the channel would no longer be valid which would increase the likelihood for a greater correction.