Gold (XAUUSD) Price Forecast: Can the 50-Day MA Hold and Keep the Bullish Gold Price Outlook?

Gold Price Holds Near Retracement Zone as Traders Track Fed Cut Odds

Spot Gold (XAUUSD) spent Monday trading almost unchanged, with price action stuck around the short-term retracement zone between $4065.83 and $4023.35.

Traders are balancing this area with rising expectations of a December Federal Reserve rate cut, which helped counter the pressure from a firm U.S. dollar holding near Friday’s six-month highs.

Rate-cut bets jumped to 76%, up sharply from 40% after New York Fed President John Williams suggested borrowing costs could fall without jeopardizing the Fed’s inflation goal.

Gold continues to sit just above the 50-day moving average at $3989.12, a major trend indicator controlling the market since August 22. A failure here would signal a trend break and open the way for a quick drop toward the short-term 50% level at $3846.50. Traders are watching this test closely given the holiday-thinned liquidity that often exaggerates moves.

At 11:15 GMT, XAUUSD is trading $3858.45, up $24.57 or +0.64%.

Gold Market Reacts to Fed Signals and Dollar Strength

The dollar’s strength has kept gold contained, with greenback pricing making bullion less attractive to holders of other currencies. Still, lower Treasury yields helped keep gold supported, with the 10-year at 4.048%, the 2-year at 3.507%, and the 30-year at 4.688%.

Bond traders are preparing for several delayed U.S. economic releases this week, including October retail sales and Producer Price Index data on Tuesday, followed by jobless claims and durable goods on Wednesday. These numbers will shape expectations heading into next week’s Fed decision.

Fed officials remain split on the near-term policy path, but the market has priced in a roughly 75% chance of a quarter-point cut, holding the target range at 3.75% to 4.00% for now. Saxo Bank’s Ole Hansen noted that gold steadied as traders evaluated the potential for lower rates while weighing softer labor-market signals.

FX Moves Show Broader Risk Trends but Limited Gold Impact

The yen weakened to 156.89 per dollar, hovering near last week’s 10-month low and prompting renewed speculation about possible intervention from Tokyo. The euro edged up to $1.1531 on renewed U.S. rate-cut expectations, while sterling held at $1.3095 ahead of Wednesday’s U.K. budget. Currency moves provided limited direct influence on gold but contributed to the broader U.S. dollar tone.

Gold Price Forecast: Watching the 50-Day Average for Direction

Near-term trade hinges on the market’s reaction to the $3989.12 50-day moving average. A break exposes $3846.50, keeping the short-term bias bearish.

On the upside, gold must clear the $4133.95–$4192.36 retracement zone to retest the $4245.20 swing top. A breakout there would put $4381.44 back in play, but light holiday volume raises the risk of false moves.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.