Gold (XAUUSD) Price Forecast: Gold Breakout Stalls—Is a Secondary Top Forming?

Gold Price Weekly Recap: Volatile Close Below Resistance Keeps Bulls in Check

Spot gold (XAU/USD) settled at $4085.83, gaining $84.55 or +2.11% for the week. Despite the strong weekly performance, the metal failed to hold above the key 50% monthly retracement level at $4133.95, closing below it and signaling potential exhaustion near-term. The inability to sustain strength above that pivot leaves the market vulnerable, especially after falling from the weekly high at $4245.20.

Fed Outlook and Shutdown Fallout Weigh on Sentiment

The fundamental backdrop remains clouded by the aftereffects of the 43-day U.S. government shutdown, which delayed or disrupted critical economic data. October CPI and NFP reports may never be published, leaving policymakers to rely on incomplete information ahead of the December FOMC meeting.

This vacuum has elevated the importance of Wednesday’s Fed meeting minutes and Friday’s revised University of Michigan sentiment data, as traders look for any forward guidance on rates. The Fed has already cut rates twice this year, and while there’s pressure from weakening employment trends and sentiment data, policymakers appear divided on how to proceed.

Consumer Confidence Remains Fragile

Preliminary sentiment data showed a dramatic 30% year-over-year drop in the University of Michigan Index, landing near its second-lowest reading since 1978. While investor-class households showed improved confidence, broader pessimism remains. Job cuts reported in the ADP data — averaging 11,000 per week — and expectations for rising unemployment continue to weigh on the outlook. Friday’s final sentiment read could confirm whether this pessimism is deepening.

Weekly Technical Outlook: Resistance Holds, Bulls Need Follow-Through

Gold’s weekly close below $4133.95 keeps that level as resistance heading into next week. A convincing breakout above $4245.20 is still required to extend the rally toward the record high at $4381.44.

However, last week’s reversal from that level could be the early sign of a secondary lower top, which would warn of a trend shift if confirmed by further weakness.

On the downside, sellers could drive prices into the minor swing bottom at $3886.46, followed by the retracement zone between $3846.50 and $3720.25, if bullish momentum continues to fade.

Gold Price Forecast: Bullish Momentum at Risk Below $4133.95

While the long-term trend remains up, the weekly chart now reflects hesitation. Bulls need to reclaim $4133.95 to re-establish control and push toward $4245.20 and beyond. Failing to do so could invite stronger selling interest and a deeper retracement toward prior value zones.

Until then, the outlook remains range-bound with a cautious bias as traders wait for clarity from the Fed minutes and upcoming Michigan sentiment data.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.