Gold (XAUUSD) Price Forecast: Gold Market Holds Firm as Fed Easing Sparks Bullish Outlook

Gold Weekly Recap: Fed Easing Bets Keep Bullion Firm Into Holiday Trade

Spot Gold (XAUUSD) spent the short Thanksgiving week consolidating the extraordinary gains it has built throughout 2025. Spot prices remain up 59% year-to-date, putting the metal on track for its strongest annual performance since 1979.

After reaching an all-time high of $4,381.44 on October 20, bullion has settled into a broad $3,886.46 to $4,245.20 range during November as traders weigh Federal Reserve expectations, global rates, and geopolitical headlines.

Fed Rate Cut Expectations Drive the Week

Gold’s most important catalyst this week was the sudden repricing of rate-cut expectations. Markets shifted to an 82% probability of a 25 basis point cut in December, supported by dovish remarks from Fed Governor Christopher Waller, who openly advocated for easing at the upcoming meeting. That boosted gold early in the week, with spot prices holding near $4,109.71–$4,159.40.

Waller’s comments gained additional weight due to speculation that he could replace Jerome Powell when the Fed chair’s term expires in May 2026. Traders interpreted his messaging as a strong signal that the December meeting could mark the start of a more accommodative policy path, lending fresh support to bullion.

Soft U.S. Data Reinforces Bullish Sentiment

Economic data strengthened the case for easing. September retail sales rose just 0.2% versus expectations for 0.4%, while consumer confidence fell sharply to 88.7 from 95.5. Private-sector employment for the four weeks ending November 8 declined by an average of 13,500 jobs per week, signaling a weaker labor backdrop. For gold, lower rates and softer economic conditions typically increase demand, given the metal’s inverse relationship with the U.S. dollar and Treasuries.

By Wednesday, gold had reached $4,173.50, a two-week high, before markets closed for the holiday.

Structural Demand Remains a Major Support Pillar

Beyond short-term catalysts, structural demand continues to underpin the broader gold story. Central banks purchased 220 tonnes in Q3, led by buyers in Poland, China, Turkey, Kazakhstan, India, and new entrants such as Brazil. ETF inflows also remained strong, adding 222 tonnes in Q3 and bringing year-to-date inflows to 619 tonnes, with $64 billion in new capital.

Deutsche Bank added to the bullish tone this week, raising its 2026 forecast to $4,450 per ounce and projecting a $3,950–$4,950 trading range next year. Analysts cited strong investment flows and persistent central bank demand as key factors supporting higher prices into 2026.

Oil Prices Forecast: Short-Term Gold Outlook Leans Bullish

Risks do exist — including a stronger-than-expected dollar, a potentially less dovish Fed in 2026, and ongoing weakness in jewelry demand — but the near-term setup remains constructive.

With markets pricing in a December rate cut and geopolitical tensions still elevated, dip-buyers are likely to stay active. The December 9–10 Fed meeting is the next major catalyst, and traders expect a supportive outcome. Should policymakers confirm the easing path markets anticipate, gold’s bullish short-term outlook remains intact.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.