Gold (XAUUSD) Price Forecast: Safe-Haven Bids Lift Gold Price as Iran Talks Loom

Gold Ticks Up on Safe-Haven Bids as Markets Eye U.S.-Iran Talks

Gold prices are putting in a mixed performance on Thursday as traders await more details regarding U.S. and Iran nuclear talks later in the day, while assessing the potential impact on demand from the new U.S. tariff legislation. Uncertainty seems to be playing a role in both capping gains and underpinning the market.

At 12:17 GMT, XAUUSD is trading $5171.00, up $7.42 or +0.14%.

Iran Tensions and Tariff Uncertainty Keep the Safe-Haven Bid Alive

The third round of U.S.-Iran nuclear talks gets underway in Geneva today, with Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner representing the U.S. side. Trump already laid out his position in the State of the Union, saying he won’t allow the world’s largest sponsor of terrorism to get a nuclear weapon.

Tariffs Heading Higher as Dollar Stays Capped

U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer, on Wednesday, announced that the U.S. has increased the tariff rate for certain countries from 10% to 15% or greater; however, he did not specify the number of countries affected or give further information about them.

In other news, the U.S. dollar is inching higher on Thursday after an earlier setback; however, it has not surpassed the 50-day moving average at 97.919, providing limited support to gold prices.

Record High in the Rearview but Sentiment Remains Strong

On January 29, gold hit a record high of $5,602.23. Gold prices so far this year have risen by 20%, driven by strong buying from Asia and central banks. The international marketplace continues to show bullish sentiment toward gold. Investors are watching today’s weekly U.S. jobless claims report for further directional clues.

Uptrend Intact with $5143.89 the Key Level to Watch

Technically, the market is in an uptrend on the main swing chart and the 50-day moving average. According to the swing chart, a trade through $5250.00 will signal a resumption of the uptrend. The same chart says the trend will change to down if $4842.60 fails as support.

The intermediate uptrend will remain intact as long as the 50-day moving average at $4775.70. After holding as support and guiding XAUUSD higher throughout 2025, this indicator was pierced on February 2, when the market plunged to $4402.38. However, it quickly regained the moving average, fueling a resumption of the uptrend.

Geneva Talks Are the Trigger — Watch $5143.89 for Direction

Looking ahead, the direction of the market on Thursday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the 61.8% level at $5143.89. Holding above it will indicate the presence of buyers. This could create the upside momentum needed to overtake this week’s high at $5250.00. A failure to hold $5143.89 could trigger a quick break into the 50% level at $5002.31.

Fundamentally, the impact of the tariffs appears to be fading with all eyes shifting to Geneva. Look for a surge if the U.S.-Iran negotiations completely collapse. Gold will continue to be underpinned by central bank buying even if only the framework of a deal is reached or an entire deal is agreed upon.

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