Gold (XAUUSD) Price Forecast: Traders Eye $4133.95 as Gold Price Searches for Direction

Gold Price Slips as Buyers Step Back Ahead of Key U.S. Data

Spot Gold edged lower on Tuesday after an early push ran out of steam at the short-term pivot near $4133.95. Buyers probed the 61.8% retracement at $4192.36 and the swing top at $4245.20, but the market didn’t have the conviction to extend Monday’s move. With pre-holiday liquidity thinning out, traders are holding back until the delayed U.S. data dump hits.

At 13:07 GMT, XAUUSD is trading $4135.34, up $1.37 or +0.03%.

Gold Market Pullback Deepens as Pivot Rejects Upside

As long as $4133.95 caps the advance, sellers keep the upper hand. The next downside zone sits at $4065.83–$4023.35, a familiar retracement area that tends to attract short-term flows.

Lose that band and gold gravitates toward the 50-day moving average, which has been steering the uptrend since late summer. The precise reading — currently near $3999 — isn’t the key.

What matters is whether gold closes below the 50-day, because a sustained break of the indicator would signal the uptrend is slipping and could shake out weaker longs.

Dollar Strength Keeps Gold Rallies Contained

Monday’s rally always looked stretched with the dollar sitting near last week’s six-month high. The firmer greenback is still trimming gold’s appeal, especially for non-U.S. buyers. With delayed economic reports trickling back into the system, traders have been reacting aggressively to each release. That’s essentially what we saw Monday — a fast squeeze higher — followed by Tuesday’s giveback.

Rate expectations continue to lean supportive. Markets still price an 81% chance of a December cut and similar for January.

Christopher Waller said Monday the labor market has cooled enough for another quarter-point move, while John Williams hinted last week that easing could start “in the near term.”

Further out, WisdomTree’s Nitesh Shah argues a structurally softer dollar could push gold toward $4700 by 2026.

Gold Analysis Steady as Treasury Yields Hold Flat

Treasury yields barely moved Tuesday, keeping trade quiet. The 10-year hovers near 4.02%, the 30-year around 4.67%, and the 2-year near 3.48%. Traders are watching how these levels shape expectations going into the December 10 meeting. With the Fed entering the blackout period Thursday evening, the next 48 hours of data carry extra weight.

Gold Price Forecast: $4133.95 Sets the Tone

Near term, gold stays vulnerable under the $4133.95 pivot. A slide into $4065.83–$4023.35 fits the post-rally setup. The key signal is the 50-day moving average. Hold above it and bulls keep the advantage. Break and close below it, and gold opens the door to a deeper correction — especially if incoming U.S. data print stronger than expected.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.