Gold (XAUUSD), Silver, Platinum Forecasts – Gold Retreats On Rate-Hike Worries

Gold Moves Lower As Traders Worry That Fed Will Raise Rates In September

Gold is losing some ground as traders stay focused on the recent Non Farm Payrolls report, which indicated that U.S. economy added 162,000 jobs in August.

The strong report raised worries about a potential rate hike from the Fed. According to FedWatch Tool, the probability of a rate hike at the next meeting  has increased to 60.4%.

I’d note that the probability of a rate hike at the nearest Fed meeting has been moving back and forth in recent weeks, and it remains unclear whether Fed is ready to raise rates.

That said, the market believes that Fed will start the rate hike cycle this year. The probability of a stable federal funds rate until December is just 13.6%. In my opinion, such expectations are too optimistic as oil prices keep moving higher amid rising tensions in the Middle East.

WTI oil has recently climbed above the $92.00 level, while Brent oil moved towards $97.00. Recent reports suggest that Saudi Aramco facilities in Jizan have been hit.

Rising oil prices will fuel inflation and leave Fed with little chance to keep rates unchanged in 2026. Higher rates are bearish for gold that pays no interest.

U.S. dollar is losing ground against a broad basket of currencies as traders focus on yen’s strong rally. It looks that BoJ continues to provide support to the yen. Weaker dollar is bullish for dollar-denominated commodities, but dollar’s move did not provide sufficient support to gold markets in today’s trading session.

Gold failed to settle above the resistance level at $4480 – $4500 and pulled back towards the $4400 level. In case gold manages to settle below $4400, it will head towards the nearest support at $4300 – $4320. A move below the $4300 level will open the way to the test of the 50 MA at $4247.

I believe that a move below the 50 MA will be a major disappointment for the bulls and may ultimately push gold towards the $4000 level, although it’s too early to discuss this scenario.

Silver Attempts To Settle Above $66.00

Silver is mostly flat as traders focus on weaker dollar and evaluate recent changes in Fed policy outlook. Gold/silver ratio pulled back towards the 66.50 level, providing additional support to silver markets.

I’d note that gold/silver ratio has been mostly stuck in the 66-68 range in recent weeks. If gold/silver ratio moves below the 66.00 level, speculative traders may increase their purchases of silver.

Currently, silver is stuck near the support level at $65.00 – $66.00. Silver needs to stay above the $66.00 level to have a chance to gain upside momentum in the near term. In this scenario, silver will head towards the resistance level at $71.00 – $72.00.

On the support side, a successful test of the support level at $65.00 – $66.00 will open the way to the test of the next support at $61.00 – $62.00.

Platinum Gains Ground Despite Rising Oil Prices

Platinum is moving higher despite the rally in the oil markets. Palladium markets are up by +0.3%, which is neutral for platinum.

From the technical point of view, platinum settled above the support at $1780 – $1800 and is moving towards the $1830 level. If platinum climbs above $1830, it will head towards the resistance level at $1870 – $1890. In my opinion, platinum will need significant positive catalysts to move above $1890 as this level has been tested many times and proved its strength.

On the support side, a move below the $1780 level will push platinum towards the next support level at $1700 – $1720.

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