Gold (XAUUSD) & Silver Price Forecast: Gold Breaks $3,980 as Silver Dives to $57 Amid Ceasefire — Bearish Turn?

Precious Metals Supported by Central Bank Demand and Supply Constraints.

Fundamentals of gold and silver as of June 25 are driven primarily by ongoing central bank buying and relatively low growth rates in mine production rates. The largest central banks are still accumulating metals reserves for long term diversification as global debt levels continue to increase and evolving monetary-policy frameworks.

New mine supply rates for the precious metals remain constrained. Gold supply rates have been growing very slowly over the last several years. Silver has had additional sources of supply coming in, but silver rates are still not growing very much. Recycling volumes respond to economic incentives.

Silver maintains a differentiated profile through expanding industrial fabrication. This is also being fueled to some degree by solar panel demand and other electrical product demand as we enter a new world economy. There is also demand to invest in these two products for both gold and silver. But this all comes down to the total amount of gold and silver being held by the world economy as a whole.                                                                      

Gold Spot Crashes to $3,987 – Pivot Zone Breakdown Reinforces Bearish Momentum on the 4H Chart

Gold Spot is currently at $3,987 on the 4-hour time frame. Below the blue pivot zone of approximately $4,090, bearish continuation candles have established themselves as Gold continues to decline from the $4,357 swing high. We are seeing significant distribution as the price prints large bearish engulfing candles and consecutive lower highs before finally testing the $3,900 zone.

The RSI is sitting below 40, suggesting strong bearish momentum. From a volume point of view, the $4,023 to $4,090 zone represents a fair-value area that failed to hold and the sellers are firmly in control. We are also seeing that Gold Spot is struggling to break out above a descending trendline. As it stands, Gold Spot remains decisively bearish below $4,090, within the broader downtrend from the $4,597 high. Consecutive lower highs and lower lows suggest that we remain bearish.

Trade Idea: Sell at $3,987, targeting $3,830, with a stop-loss at $4,023.

Silver Spot Dives to $57.20 – Pivot Zone Breakdown Signals Further Downside on the 4H Chart

Silver Spot is currently at $57.20 on the 4-hour time frame. Below the blue pivot zone of approximately $59.62, bearish continuation candles have established themselves as Silver continues to decline from the $71.49 swing high. We are seeing significant distribution as the price prints lower highs and a couple of bearish rejection wicks.

The RSI is sitting around 40, suggesting strong bearish momentum. From a volume point of view, the $59 to $62 zone represents a fair-value cluster that failed to hold and the sellers are firmly in control. We are also seeing that Silver Spot is trading below key Fibonacci levels at $53.40 to $51.26. As it stands, Silver Spot remains decisively bearish below $59.62, within the broader downtrend. Consecutive lower highs and lower lows suggest that we remain bearish.

Trade Idea: Sell at $57.20, targeting $53.40, with a stop-loss at $59.62.