Gold (XAUUSD) & Silver Price Forecast: Gold Holds $5,000 as Silver Eyes $94—Breakout or Pause?

Market Overview

Gold (XAU/USD) prolonged its two day winning streak and edged higher around above 5,000 mark, hitting an intraday high near the 5,082 level. However, the upward trend can be attributed to the renewed US-Iran geopolitical tensions, which have increased safe-haven demand and pushed investors toward gold.

Another factor supporting the gold price could be the rising expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts. This dovish expectation keeps the US dollar under pressure and benefiting the yellow metal.

Meanwhile, Silver (XAG/USD) is trading at 88.23, up 3.74%, as safe-haven demand boosts precious metals like silver. However, the rally is supported by US-Iran tensions and expectations of lower Fed rates.

Tensions Between US and Iran Push Investors Toward Gold

On the geopolitical front, tensions between the US and Iran did not show any signs of slowing down as reports of a drone incident triggered uncertainty in the markets. As a result, the demand for safe-haven assets increased, which helps gold to stay above 5,000 mark.

According to a US Central Command spokesperson, the US Navy fighter jet shot down an Iranian drone after it approached the aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln in the Arabian Sea. This incident damaged hopes for the upcoming US-Iran nuclear talks and helped gold post its biggest one-day gain since November 2008.

Gold Finds Support as Dollar Weakens Amid Mixed Fed Signals

On the US front, the broad-based US dollar failed to extend its gains and turned bearish as growing expectations of lower interest rates continued to weigh on the currency. Despite President Donald Trump’s nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve chair, traders continue to bet on two more Fed rate cuts this year.

Meanwhile, Fed officials offered mixed signals. Governor Stephen Miran said inflation is not a big concern and suggested the Fed could cut rates by about one percentage point this year. On the other hand, Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin noted that inflation is still above target but should ease as the economy remains strong.

Apart from this, President Trump signed a spending bill that ended the partial government shutdown and extended funding for several federal agencies. This positive news could cap some gains in the safe-haven gold.

Looking ahead, investors are keeping a close eyes on Wednesday’s US ADP jobs report and the ISM Services PMI. These reports will likely affect the US dollar and give gold a new direction in the market.

Gold Price Forecast: XAU Reclaims $5,000 as Bulls Regroup After Sharp Shakeout

Gold (XAU/USD) is trading close to $5,080, continuing its recovery after falling from the $5,585 high. On the 2-hour chart, a long lower wick near $4,420 shows that buyers stepped in during the dip. This rebound has lifted gold above the 200-EMA at about $4,950, but the 50-EMA near $5,100 is now serving as short-term resistance.

The overall uptrend is still in place, with gold staying within the rising channel that started in late December. Momentum is picking up as the RSI moves toward 60, showing stronger buying without signs of overextension. Key support is at $4,950. If gold breaks above $5,100 to $5,150, it could move up toward $5,300.

Trade idea: Consider buying on pullbacks above $4,950, aiming for $5,300, but exit if price falls below $4,800.

Silver Price Forecast: XAG Rebounds Above $90 After Fibonacci Defense

Silver (XAG/USD) is trading around $90.3, continuing its recovery after dropping from the $121.6 high. On the 2-hour chart, strong buying appeared near the 0.236 Fibonacci level at $83.2, shown by long lower wicks that suggest buyers stepped in.

The rebound has moved silver above short-term support, but the price is still below the 200-EMA near $96.5, so the overall outlook stays cautious. Recent candles show higher lows, which points to a possible base forming instead of a full trend reversal.

The 50-EMA near $94 to $95 is now acting as short-term resistance. The RSI has moved up from oversold levels below 30 to about 45, showing that selling pressure is easing, but there is no strong sign of a bullish move yet. Support is at $83, with resistance at $94 and $102.

Trade idea: Consider buying if the price stays above $83, with a target of $94. The idea is no longer valid if the price falls below $71.