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Industrial and Base Metals Fundamental Analysis – August 31, 2015 – Forecast– Copper, Palladium & More

Barry Norman

Analysis and Recommendations:

Copper dipped 10 points to trade at 2.324 as the US dollar gained momentum weighing on metals. Palladium added $5.70 to 574.30. Base metals closed lower in London Wednesday as risk-averse market participants sold down their positions, worried about the prospects for China despite Tuesday’s attempt by the country’s central bank to stimulate the economy of the world’s biggest buyer of metals.

Copper futures slid again in London on Friday after rising sharply in the previous session, as persistent worries about demand in China returned to weigh on investors.

The red metal started the session higher, supported by Chinese equities which stayed in positive territory. Analysts said the relief rally lost momentum as short-covering fizzled out and market attention drifted back to concerns around the underlying supply and demand picture.

“The recovery in commodity prices looks fragile with concerns over China’s growth still weighing on market activity,” said ANZ Research.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Today’s economic releases:

Cur.

 

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

 

  JPY

 

Household Spending (YoY) (Jul)

-0.2%

1.3%

-2.0%

 

 

  JPY

 

Household Spending (MoM) (Jul)

0.6%

2.2%

-3.0%

 

 

  JPY

 

Jobs/applications ratio (Jul)

1.21

1.19

1.19

 

 

  JPY

 

National Core CPI (YoY) (Jul)

0.0%

-0.2%

0.1%

 

 

  JPY

 

Tokyo Core CPI (YoY) (Aug)

-0.1%

-0.2%

-0.1%

 

 

  JPY

 

Retail Sales (YoY) (Jul)

1.6%

1.1%

0.9%

 

 

  CHF

 

GDP (YoY) (Q2)

1.2%

0.9%

1.2%

   

  CHF

 

GDP (QoQ) (Q2)

0.2%

-0.1%

-0.2%

 

 

  EUR

 

Spanish CPI (YoY) (Aug)  

-0.4%

-0.1%

0.1%

 

 

  EUR

 

Spanish HICP (YoY) (Aug)  

-0.5%

-0.2%

0.0%

 

 

  GBP

 

Business Investment (QoQ) (Q2) 

2.9%

1.7%

2.0%

 

 

  GBP

 

GDP (YoY) (Q2)  

2.6%

2.6%

2.6%

 

 

  GBP

 

GDP (QoQ) (Q2)  

0.7%

0.7%

0.7%

 

 

  EUR

 

German CPI (MoM) (Aug)  

0.0%

-0.1%

0.2%

 

 

  USD

 

Core PCE Price Index (YoY) (Jul)

1.2%

1.3%

1.3%

 

 

  USD

 

Core PCE Price Index (MoM) (Jul)

0.1%

0.1%

0.1%

 

 

  USD

 

Goods Trade Balance (Jul)

-59.12B

 

-62.26B

 

 

  USD

 

Personal Spending (MoM) (Jul)

0.3%

0.4%

0.3%

   

  CAD

 

RMPI (MoM) (Jul)

-5.9%

-4.0%

0.2%

   

 

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

Monday, August 31, 2015

Cur.

 

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

 

 

 

 

United Kingdom – Summer Bank Holiday

  NZD

 

Building Consents (MoM) (Jul)

 

 

-4.1%

 

 

  JPY

 

Industrial Production (MoM) (Jul)

 

 

1.1%

 

 

  AUD

 

HIA New Home Sales (MoM) (Jul)

 

 

 

 

 

  AUD

 

Company Gross Operating Profits

 

 

0.2%

 

 

  AUD

 

Private Sector Credit (MoM) (Jul)

 

 

0.4%

 

 

  CHF

 

KOF Leading Indicators (Aug)

 

 

99.8

 

 

  EUR

 

CPI (YoY) (Aug)

 

0.2%

0.2%

 

 

  CAD

 

Current Account (Q2)

 

 

-17.5B

 

 

  USD

 

Chicago PMI (Aug)

 

54.5

54.7

   

Government Bond Auctions

Date Time Country

Aug 28 11:10 Italy Auctions BTPs/CCTeus

Sep 01 11:15 Austria Holds RAGB bond sale

Sep 01 00:00 UK Announces details of 3.5% 2045 Gilt

Sep 02 11:03 Sweden Holds bond auction

Sep 02 11:30 Germany Eur 4bn 0.25% Oct 2020 Bobl

Sep 02 11:30 UK Auctions new Jan 2021 Gilt

Sep 03 10:30 Spain Auctions Bonos/Obligaciones

Sep 03 11:10 France Auctions OATs

Sep 03 00:00 US Announces details of 3yr note on 08 Sep, 10yr note on 09 Sep

Sep 03 00:00 US Announces details of 10-year note on 09 Sep

 

 

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