NASDAQ-100 Failure at 15182.75 Could Lead to Test of 14515.75

March E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index futures are trading higher late in the session on Wednesday, boosted by strong gains in shares of Alphabet, Advanced Micro Devices and other tech-related companies. Other index components like PayPal and Starbucks didn’t fare so well.

At 19:45 GMT, March E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index futures are trading 15034.25, up 39.50 or +0.26%. The Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 ETF (QQQ) is at 368.51, up $2.99 or +0.82%.

Big tech names have been key drivers of the four-day rebound, as investors refocused their attention on earnings season, after mega cap tech companies continued reporting strong quarterly results and forward guidance. These names also led the way lower last month amid concerns over rising rates.

In economic news, ADP data showed private payroll data fell by 301,000 for January. Economists polled by Dow Jones were expecting 200,000 private jobs were added in January.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. However, momentum is trending higher.

A trade through 13706.00 will signal a resumption of the downtrend. A move through 16009.25 will change the main trend to up.

The minor trend is up. This is controlling the momentum. A trade through 13841.00 will change the minor trend to down.

The short-term range is 16659.50 to 13706.00. It retracement zone at 15182.75 to 15531.25 stopped the rally earlier in the session on Wednesday at 15260.00.

Short-Term Outlook

The short-term direction of the March E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index is likely to be determined by trader reaction to 15182.75 to 15531.25.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over the 50% level at 15182.75 will indicate the presence of buyers, but a strong rally through the upper or Fibonacci level at 15531.25 could trigger an acceleration to the upside with the first main top at 16009.25 the next likely target.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 15182.75 will signal the presence of sellers. If this move creates enough downside momentum then look for a potential break into the longer-term 50% level at 14515.75.

Side Notes

Since the main trend is down, continue to look for sellers inside 15182.75 to 15531.25. They are going to try to form a potentially bearish secondary lower top.

Following a 50% retracement of the rally from 13706.00 to 15260.00, aggressive counter-trend buyers may try to enter on a test of 14515.75.