Tech Buyers Return as Oil and Yields Back Off
The Nasdaq is not buying a softer Fed. Warsh raised rates Wednesday, said inflation is still too high and left the door open for another hike. The market sold it, slept on it, and came back Thursday morning looking for a different trade. The conditions that had been grinding growth stocks lower all week reversed at the same time and buyers did not wait for a second invitation.
At 11:54 EDT, the Nasdaq Composite is trading 26,388.85, up 410.42 or +1.58%. The session high is 26,417.91 and the low is 26,289.94.
Wednesday’s Losers Are Not Thursday’s Leaders
The Dow dropped more than 630 points Wednesday. The Nasdaq barely moved. That split is playing out in reverse Thursday. The Dow is recovering less than 1% while the Nasdaq is up 1.58%. Financial stocks that took the rate decision hardest are not leading the bounce. Technology is doing all of the work.
Brent pulled back toward the low $100s after Saudi Arabia found ways to keep crude moving despite the pipeline damage. The 10-year yield dropped more than five basis points to 4.951%. Crude below $100 and the 10-year back under 5% on the same morning reopened the growth trade and the money went straight into the names that held up best during Wednesday’s selling.
Generac Put Data-Center Power on the Map
Generac was up 33% before most traders had it on a watchlist. Amazon signed a long-term deal for backup power generators with initial deliveries worth $2.4 billion in 2027 and 2028. The full contract could reach $8 billion. Amazon took warrants for an equity stake on top of it.
That is not a purchase order. That is Amazon tying itself to a supplier. A 33% repricing in a single session on a company nobody was talking about last week tells you how much money is still looking for ways into the AI buildout. The warrants tell you Amazon thinks the relationship is worth more than the generators.
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See all Dow Jones forecastsNebius Says Compute Is Still Scarce Enough to Raise Prices
Nebius caught a bid after reports it will raise prices on GPU cloud services by roughly 17% to 21% starting October 1. Pricing for H100, H200, B200 and B300 instances is going up. CPU and memory prices are following.
That is a better demand signal than another forecast. A company raising prices across premium compute is telling customers that high-end capacity remains tight enough to charge more for it. The market has spent months arguing about whether data-center spending is getting ahead of revenue. Nebius just answered that question for its own customers. Demand is still outrunning supply in the parts of the cloud market that matter most and the ability to raise prices gives the AI infrastructure group an answer to the argument that every new GPU eventually turns into commodity capacity.
Chips Are Confirming the Breadth
Broadcom, AMD and Marvell all participated in Thursday’s move. Intel jumped on reports it is in talks with SK Hynix about U.S. memory production. That story matters because Intel needs a role in the AI supply chain that goes beyond watching the other three take the demand. A memory partnership that brings production onshore gives Intel something to trade.
The broader point is group participation. Semiconductors, equipment, memory, AI cloud and data-center power are all moving in the same direction Thursday. That is enough breadth inside technology to keep the Nasdaq firm even while software and cybersecurity sit on the sideline still trading the question of whether AI helps their revenue or replaces it.
Daily Nasdaq Composite Index (IXIC) Technical Analysis
The Nasdaq Composite is sharply higher Thursday after gapping above Wednesday’s high at the open and jumping the 50-day moving average at 26,064.91. Buyers drove the index through the 50% level at 26,339.24 and the rally is now testing the retracement zone at 26,339.24 to 26,465.80. Thursday’s high at 26,417.91 has not cleared the upper end of that zone.
The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. A trade through 26,644.57 will change the main trend to up. The minor trend is also down. A move through 26,431.22 will change the minor trend to up and confirm the shift in momentum.
The short-term range is 26,875.52 to 25,802.96. Its retracement zone at 26,339.24 to 26,465.80 is the immediate upside test. The key bottom is 25,802.96.
What to Watch
Warsh raised rates and did not close the door on December. Thursday’s buyers are trading lower yields and cheaper crude, not a change in the Fed’s stance. The afternoon matters more than the morning because the policy backdrop has not changed since Wednesday. The question into the close is whether this is a one-session response to easing conditions or the start of something that carries into next week.
Both swing trends are still pointing down even with Thursday’s rally. The bias has shifted to the upside with the Nasdaq above the 50-day moving average at 26,064.91 and through the 50% level at 26,339.24.
The retracement zone at 26,339.24 to 26,465.80 is the test right now and Thursday’s high at 26,417.91 has not cleared the top of it. A push through 26,465.80 opens 26,644.57 which is where the main trend changes to up and the post-Fed selling is officially over. A move through 26,431.22 flips the minor trend and confirms the momentum shift.
On the downside, losing 26,339.24 puts the 50-day back in focus with 25,802.96 as the bottom that cannot break without restarting the whole selloff.
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