Natural Gas and Oil Forecast: Geopolitical Tensions Keep Crude Volatile Near $62

Market Overview

WTI crude slipped to $62 per barrel on Tuesday after reaching a two-week high, as optimism over U.S.-China trade progress was tempered by broader geopolitical concerns.

A temporary pause in bilateral tariffs has boosted market sentiment, but crude remains under pressure amid persistent oversupply risks. OPEC+ signals suggest output will rise in May and June, adding to downward momentum.

At the same time, expectations of relaxed sanctions on Iranian oil are fueling forecasts of increased global supply. Unresolved geopolitical tensions in Eastern Europe and the Middle East continue to weigh on energy markets, keeping volatility elevated and sentiment cautious.

Natural Gas Price Forecast

Natural gas futures are trading at $3.717 and continue to climb within a well-structured ascending channel on the 4-hour chart. Buyers stepped in near the $3.609 support area, which coincides with both the lower trendline and the 50-period EMA, currently at $3.602.

This confluence held firm, helping price rebound toward the upper half of the channel. Immediate resistance is now seen at $3.825, followed by the next barrier near $3.926. As long as price remains above $3.609, the bullish bias remains intact. A break below that level could open the door toward $3.529 and potentially $3.420.

The market is showing signs of steady recovery from its April lows, and with price tracking above the 50 EMA, bulls remain in control for now. The key now is whether momentum can push through $3.825—if so, the next stop may be just shy of the $4.00 mark.

WTI Oil Price Forecast

WTI crude oil is trading at $62.04, holding just above a pivotal zone near $61.64. This level aligns with both a support shelf and an ascending trendline on the 4-hour chart, making it a technically sensitive area. Price action has stalled here before, and the recent rejection at $62.93—now the immediate resistance—adds weight to that level. A move through $62.93 would open the path toward $64.66.

If $61.64 fails to hold, the next support to watch is $60.20, with stronger backing around $58.86. The 50-period EMA sits at $60.33, and with price still trading above it, near-term momentum leans upward.

While the 200 EMA isn’t shown, the current structure still tilts in favor of further upside—as long as $61.64 stays intact. A push through $62.93 would validate bullish continuation, while a drop below the trendline could shift sentiment and drag price lower.

Brent Oil Price Forecast

Brent crude oil is trading at $64.98 and continuing to respect its ascending channel on the 4-hour chart, with buyers holding firm above the $64.61 pivot area. The price recently rejected near $66.34, which now serves as the immediate resistance. If bulls can reclaim that level, the next upside target sits at $67.43.

On the downside, $63.13 offers nearby support, followed by a stronger floor at $61.94. The 50-period EMA, currently at $63.27, is trending upward and supports the bullish structure. With price trading above both the EMA and the midline of the channel, momentum remains in buyers’ favor.

As long as $64.61 holds, this remains a buy-the-dip setup. But a break below that could trigger a deeper pullback toward the lower end of the channel or $63.13. Keep an eye on $66.34—cracking that would confirm fresh momentum.