Natural Gas and Oil Forecast: Gulf Shipping Risks Support WTI as Brent Tests $97

Oil News: Gulf Shipping Risks Deepen as OPEC+ Holds the Line

Once again, supply security becomes the primary concern for the oil markets. Disrupted Gulf of Mexico maritime traffic started the week following a new escalation between the U.S. and Iran. Iran stated on Sunday that it will develop new corridors and restricted zones within the Strait of Hormuz, and that any vessels in this area will face sanctions. This statement was made following the attacks on U.S. military personnel and Iranian-related shipping. Irrespective of the advantage gained from the new route system, Hormuz remains critical to global crude oil trade.

No immediate help was supplied by OPEC+. The group announced at its September 6 meeting that it would maintain the status quo for October for its oil production levels after having fully implemented the 1.65 million barrel per day reduction for 2023 that it had agreed to earlier. Voluntary cuts have already put a restriction on production in the Middle East, so there is little likelihood that OPEC+ will be able to fully meet its production targets even if they were increased. OPEC+ is now focused on producing capacity and 2027 quotas, with its next meeting scheduled for October 4.

U.S. markets continue to be tight. Strong refinery demand and U.S exports supported a sharp decline in crude inventories according to the EIA. Tightness in global gasoline supplies has been even more significant for refined products. According to the EIA, elevated gasoline crack spreads reflect tight global gasoline supplies.

Natural gas is a different story. The first half of 2026 saw an average of 17.4 Bcf/d of U.S. LNG exports, a 23% increase over 2025. Capacity has been added at Plaquemines, Corpus Christi Stage 3, and Golden Pass.

EIA estimates exports reaching 17.3 Bcf/d on average for the second half of the year, rising further in early 2027. Disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz also impacted Qatari LNG, and consequently, Asian buyers are competing with the U.S. and other countries for spot cargoes.

Fundamental bias: USOIL and UKOil trade with a bullish position, Natural Gas exhibits a balanced position, with the dominant near-term risk of Gulf shipping disruptions while growing U.S. gas supply offers counterbalance.

Natural Gas Technical Analysis: NG Holds Rising Trendline as $2.97–$3.03 Resistance Stays in Play

NG currently trades at $2.94, having pulled back from recent highs of $3.03 on the 4-hour chart. I pay attention when the small retracements maintain the bullish structure, and in this case, NG has retracted toward a rising trend line and $2.88-$2.90 support zone, which was previously resistance. This tells me the overall structure of the bullish recovery remains intact.

I view resistance at $2.97. $3.03 and $3.08 are next. A solid break of $3.03 would turn the focus to the bullish scenario. I view support first at $2.90-$2.88, followed by $2.82 and $2.78.

RSI has retreated from overbought territory, suggesting a loss of momentum, but in a bullish manner. I am maintaining a bullish stance as long as NG holds $2.88. A break beneath that level opens $2.82 and a loss of the overall bullish structure. A clean reclaim of $2.97 puts $3.03 and $3.08 in focus.

WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis: USOIL Holds Above $89.89 as $92.67 Breakout Comes Into Focus

WTI crude oil is trading for $92.48 on the 4-hour chart, and what stands out most to me is how well price has held above the $87.75 breakout zone. The move from the lows in late August at around $79.66 has clearly trended up, with price now above the key moving averages and the overall trend remaining bullish.

The focus now shifts to the $92.67 resistance level, which is also a 1.618 Fibonacci extension level. A clear break above this level would suggest that we could see a move towards the $95.76, $97.93 and even $100.73 levels. On the contrary, if price does break down below the $89.89 level, I would consider $87.75 to be the most important level to focus on moving forwards, with $84.50 potentially coming back into focus.

I remain constructive on WTI while above $89.89 and $87.75, while the RSI remaining comfortable. I would consider a 4-hour close back below $87.75 to be a negative sign on the potential breakout, while a clear continuous break above $92.67 would be a clear sign for bulls to continue their run.

Brent Crude Oil Technical Analysis: UKOIL Challenges $96.95 as $99.41 Becomes the Next Upside Target

As of the 4-hour chart, Brent crude stands at $97.16 as it continues the recovery from the $84.62 low. Of particular interest is the price break above the $94.15 zone and the upcoming pressure against the prior $96.95 swing high. This points to buyers controlling the bigger picture structure, despite cooling momentum.

The next target is $96.95-$97. Breaking above the area would target $99.41 along with $101.96 and $104.00. Below $96.95-$97 levels would be the support at $94.15, then $92.24 and $90.81. The moving averages are supporting the bullish structure as they are sloping up and under price.

RSI is currently above 60, which is indicative of the trend while remaining neutral. While Brent remains trading above $94.15, I will remain long. A break below $92.24 would change my outlook to neutral. A break above $96.95 would change my outlook to bullish $99.41