Natural Gas and Oil Forecast: Hormuz Traffic Slumps as Brent Holds Above $104

USOIL, UKOil & Natural Gas Outlook: Hormuz Traffic Slumps as Red Sea Risk Deepens Energy Supply Fears

Oil fundamentals tightened further on Friday because growing U.S.-Iran tensions continued to close one of the world’s top energy transport channels. Only seven ships crossed the Strait of Hormuz on Thursday, compared with 11 ships the day before and less than half the average of 15 ships in the last 10 days, according to early data from Kpler. Prior to the Iran war, around 125 big commercial ships crossed the strait daily, versus one-fifth of global crude oil and LNG flows.

The risk is now beyond Hormuz. Iran-backed Houthis seized the port of Mocha in Yemen on Thursday and increased the risk of shipping in the Red Sea and the Bab el-Mandeb and alternative Saudi export routes. Recent Houthi attacks on Saudi energy facilities have also increased the disruption risk beyond the Iranian supply.

OPEC’s latest data show a tightening market. In August, OPEC’s oil production declined by 640,000 barrels a day to 19.71 million bpd due to Saudi disruptions and the U.S. sanctions on Iran, according to a survey by Reuters. The decline was noted despite planned increases by certain OPEC+ members.

Demand offers a counterbalance. OPEC reduced its 2026 growth forecast for global oil demand to 380,000 bpd, its fifth consecutive reduction, as the risk remains that a sustained disruption of energy flows coupled with weaker economic activity may restrain consumption.

Hormuz is becoming critical for natural gas. No LNG carrier was among Thursday’s seven recorded crossings, though QatarEnergy-linked vessels have recently started limited movements. One tanker brought the first recorded Qatar-linked LNG cargo to Pakistan since July. Limited Qatari exports increase competition for alternate LNG, which provides support to the U.S. supply. U.S. production remains the main domestic balance to supply.

Natural Gas Technical Analysis: NG Tests $2.85 Fibonacci Resistance as Momentum Stays Neutral

Current natural gas price is positioned at $2.83 on the daily chart and is continuing to trade within the $2.85 Fibonacci level which has caused resistance and has led to no strong upside momentum.

The first resistance I am watching is at $2.85. A clean break above it would show $3.51 and possibly $4.02. If the structure weakens, $2.32 is the first strong support, with $1.79 as the next support level.

The RSI is currently at the midline, showing a lack of strong directional conviction. I am neutral while natural gas is stuck around $2.85. I would become bullish if natural gas makes a sustained daily close above $3.51 and become bearish if it makes a daily close below $2.32.

WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis: USOIL Holds Above $98.78 as $105.48 Resistance Caps the Rally

Current WTI crude oil price is positioned at $102.46 on the daily chart, having broken out strongly from the $93.51 area. I am interested in the fact that price has now positioned itself in the upper zone of the Fibonacci extension as RSI has moved into overbought territory. I believe the bullish trend continues with increased risk of a corrective pullback after the strong rally.

I have my first resistance level at $105.48. A daily break higher above this would expose $112.87 and then $118.12. On the lower side $98.78 is the important first support level and breaks below this would bring $93.51 into play. Below that $86.07 would become structurally important.

I believe RSI is elevated in an overbought position and therefore, I would not recommend buying here. I remain bullish as long as WTI remains above $98.78. A sustained break lower than $93.51 on the daily chart would be a clear sign to reverse my bullish outlook, while a break above $105.48 would confirm a bullish extension.

Brent Crude Oil Technical Analysis: UKOIL Pulls Back From $110.09 as $104.14 Becomes the Key Support

At the time of writing, Brent crude is trading at $107.61 on the 4-hour chart after getting rejected by the resistance at $110.09. I see the broader consolidation trend intact, but the recent sharp move has undoubtedly slowed the trend. Price is trading well above both moving averages, so I consider this pullback to be a pullback within a consolidation bullish trend, rather than a confirmed reversal.

The first level of support I am monitoring is $104.14, which closely aligns with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level. Further down, support is created by $100.36 and $97.35 and $94.34. On the upside, $110.09 continues to be resistance. $114.48 becomes relevant to traders should buyer control return.

I believe the RSI indicates the market is strong but is vulnerable to price consolidations. Therefore, I will remain bullish as long as Brent crude trades above $104.14. A break below $100.36 would likely end the bullish interpretation, and a clear move above $110.09 would confirm a bullish interpretation of $114.48.