Natural Gas and Oil Forecast: Technical Breakdowns in WTI and Brent Point to Further Downside

Market Overview

Oil prices slid roughly 1.5%, marking a third consecutive decline and positioning both major benchmarks for a weekly loss above 2.5%. Traders reacted to rising hopes for a broad peace negotiation that could ease geopolitical risk and place additional supply back on the market.

At the same time, a stronger dollar and fading expectations of a December rate cut further pressured sentiment, making dollar-priced commodities more expensive globally. Analysts note that while any agreement remains uncertain, even the possibility of reduced geopolitical risk is eroding the premium previously supporting crude.

Natural gas and oil markets remain sensitive to shifts in supply expectations and macroeconomic signals.

Natural Gas Price Forecast

Natural gas is holding firm above the rising channel support near $4.46, keeping the broader uptrend intact. Price continues to respect the 20-EMA, which is acting as short-term dynamic support, while the 200-EMA sits comfortably below, confirming a healthy bullish structure. Each pullback into the lower boundary of the channel has produced a higher low, showing steady demand.

Momentum is stabilizing as the RSI hovers in the mid-50s, suggesting room for another push higher without signs of exhaustion. If buyers reclaim $4.60, the next resistance sits at $4.67, followed by $4.82.

A clean break below $4.46, however, would weaken the trend and expose $4.30 as the next downside level.

WTI Oil Price Forecast

WTI crude continues to drift lower after slipping beneath the 20-EMA and losing the lower boundary of the symmetrical triangle that has guided price action for weeks. The break of the C-leg support near $58.60 triggered steady selling, and candles are now closing below previous pivot levels with weak recoveries. The structure has shifted into lower highs and lower lows, showing sellers still in control.

RSI remains below 45 and isn’t signaling any bullish divergence, which means rebounds may stay limited unless momentum improves.

If WTI holds below $58.60, the next downside levels sit at $57.40 and $56.20. A move back above $59.20 would be the first sign of stabilizing demand.

Brent Oil Price Forecast

Brent crude is slipping toward the lower edge of its symmetrical-triangle structure, with price now testing support near $62.70–$62.00 after another rejection at $65.00. The 4-hour candles show repeated long upper wicks and shallow recoveries, signalling sellers are stepping in early. Price is also closing below both the 20-EMA and 50-EMA, reinforcing fading momentum.

The structure has now shifted into a sequence of lower highs, while RSI sits in the low-30s without any bullish divergence, a sign that buyers aren’t ready to defend aggressively yet. A clean break below $61.97 would confirm downside continuation toward $60.98 and possibly $60.06.

Brent only stabilises if it reclaims $63.80 and closes back above the 20-EMA, which would suggest a short-term recovery toward $65.03.