Natural Gas Fundamental Forecast – September 12, 2016

Natural Gas added 13 points to 2.819 after the weekly EIA inventory showed a smaller gain than expected. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported Thursday morning that U.S. natural gas stocks increased by 36 billion cubic feet for the week ending September 2. Analysts were expecting a storage addition of around 40 billion cubic feet. The five-year average for the week is an injection of around 64 billion cubic feet, and last year’s storage addition for the week totaled 72 billion cubic feet. Natural gas inventories rose by 51 billion cubic feet in the week ending August 26.

Over the last 20 years, September has been the best performing month for natural gas prices, with October being the 2nd best. So seasonality is in its favor right now. That said, it should be noted that the trend has broken down somewhat in the last few years.

The EIA reported that U.S. working stocks of natural gas totaled about 3.437 trillion cubic feet, around 306 billion cubic feet above the five-year average of 3.131 trillion cubic feet and 196 billion cubic feet above last year’s total for the same period. Working gas in storage totaled 3.241 trillion cubic feet for the same period a year ago.

Natural Gas Weekly Weather Outlook (www.natgasweather.com)

Sept 8-14th: High pressure will dominate the southern and eastern US with very warm temperatures of upper 80s to mid-90s, including across major cities such as Washington D.C. and NYC. Showers and cooler temperatures over the northern Rockies will spread across the Plains Great Lakes, and Mid-Atlantic in the days ahead with highs of only 60s and 70s. Over the West, warm temperatures will build in the wake of departing weather systems, including a weakening once tropical system over the SW. Most importantly, with warm upper level high pressure over the East and Southeast, nat gas demand will remain stronger than normal into early next week and at HIGH levels.

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Natural Gas Weekly Update
Release Schedule: Thursday between 2:00 and 2:30 p.m. (Eastern Time)

Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report
Release Schedule: Thursday at 10:30 (Eastern Time) (schedule)