Natural Gas Price Forecast: Bearish Breakout Targets $2.495

Support Break Keeps the Bears Moving

The bearish trend in natural gas signaled a continuation on Thursday, with a decline below the prior low near $2.635. A new low of $2.62 was reached for the session, corresponding to the August 2025 swing low. That 2025 low had significance during the decline in April, as a break below it signaled a reversal of the long-term bull trend. Another failure of support near that level would show that sellers remain in control and that the April low of $2.495 is more likely to be tested as support. That scenario is supported by the developing larger bearish trend structure.

Fibonacci Gives Way to the Bear Flag

Nonetheless, the next downside target for natural gas is the 88.6% Fibonacci retracement at $2.595, followed by an initial measured move target for the bear flag pattern that triggered on Tuesday. Since the 88.6% retracement will have been surpassed if the flag target is reached, further downside would be indicated. That ratio is considered the deepest retracement point in Fibonacci analysis at which a recovery remains possible. A sustained move below that retracement zone suggests further declines.

A Bounce Would Face a Wall of Resistance

Certainly, a bounce from either target area could occur, but it would be within a declining trend structure. Consequently, resistance is anticipated near prior support zones, which are now potential upside targets. Tuesday’s lower daily high of $2.79 is a key level, since a rise above it would be a sign of short-term strengthening rather than a confirmation of seller control. Nonetheless, the recent lower swing high of $2.81 is key resistance, along with the falling 20-day moving average, now near $2.82.

$2.635 Breakdown Sets the Benchmark

The falling 20-day moving average near $2.82 adds another layer of resistance near the $2.81 swing high. For now, the break below $2.635 keeps sellers in control, while a recovery above the nearby resistance levels would be needed to weaken the bearish outlook.

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