Natural gas markets rallied a bit during the trading session on Tuesday, as we continue to go back and forth near the $1.90 level. At this point, the market seems to see that as a bit of “fair value.”
Natural gas market participants continue to see the market go back and forth as we await the next inventory figure, but at the end of the day the reality is that the market is extraordinarily oversupplied, and that should continue to be a major issue. With this, rallies are to be sold and that’s probably the best way to trade this market as the oversupply will continue to be a major issue. Furthermore, the market is going to continue to see a lot of trouble, with the 50 day EMA being a very interesting place to start shorting if we get the opportunity on a rally to that level.
All things being equal, I believe that the $2.00 level would be an area that attracts a lot of attention as well. All things being equal, this is a downtrend that is waiting to be taken advantage of, and you should pay attention to the fact that the market simply cannot pick itself up, as the Americans have drilled 17% more in the last year than they did the previous one, and as a result the oversupply will not be worked through as we have had a very mild winter in North America.
While will almost undoubtedly have some type of winter storm that spikes the demand, the reality is it’s only a matter of time before it crashes back down so my hopeful trade is that we reach towards the 50 day EMA and then show signs of exhaustion, so that I can short the market yet again.
Please let us know what you think in the comments below
Being FXEmpire’s analyst since the early days of the website, Chris has over 20 years of experience across various markets and assets – currencies, indices, and commodities. He is a proprietary trader as well trading institutional accounts.