NZD/USD Forex Technical Analysis – Holding .6595 Could Trigger Surge into .6636

The New Zealand Dollar finished slightly lower on Friday in a lackluster trade as traders began squaring positions ahead of the holiday-shortened week. This week, volume is expected to come to a crawl with New Zealand bank holidays on December 24 and December 25. The U.S. markets will also be closed for the Christmas holiday. With almost all of the major players on the sidelines until perhaps early January, expect to trade against computers.

On Friday, the NZD/USD settled at .6603, down 0.0002 or -0.03%.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. A trade through .6636 will signal a resumption of the uptrend. The main trend will change to down on a trade through .6554.

The short-term range is .6636 to .6554. Its 50% level at .6595 has been providing support the last two sessions.

The major range is .6791 to .6204. Its retracement zone at .6567 to .6497 is controlling the longer-term direction of the NZD/USD. Traders should consider this area the key support.

The main range is .6204 to .6636. If the Forex pair were to collapse under .6497 then look for the selling to possibly extend into its retracement zone at .6420 to .6369.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

Based on Friday’s close at .6603, the direction of the NZD/USD is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the short-term pivot at .6595.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over .6595 will indicate the presence of buyers. If this move generates enough upside momentum then look for the rally to possibly extend into the main top at .6636. This is a potential trigger point for an acceleration to the upside.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under .6595 will signal the presence of sellers. This could trigger a break into the main Fibonacci level at .6567, followed by the main bottom at .6554. Taking out this bottom will change the main trend to down.

Side Notes

Look for a possible two-sided trade and a few false breakouts in either direction due to the extremely light volume and the lack of fresh news. The intraday trade could get “spikey” because of the absence of the major banks.