James Hyerczyk
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The New Zealand Dollar is inching lower early Monday, following through to the downside after Friday’s weak close. A stagnant U.S. Treasury market, the lack of fresh economic data and profit-taking are likely behind today selling pressure. Some traders also feel that last week’s surge to the upside was a little overextended given that the U.S. economy is in a position to outperform the New Zealand economy at least over the near-term.

At 05:33 GMT, the NZD/USD is trading .7143, down 0.0003 or -0.04%.

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Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. The trend turned up last week when the NZD/USD blasted through .7070. A trade through .7180 will signal a resumption of the uptrend, while a move through .6997 will change the main trend to down.

The main range is .7465 to .6943. Its retracement zone at .7204 to .7266 is the primary upside target and potential resistance. This area is also controlling the near-term direction of the NZD/USD.

The short-term range is .7270 to .6943. The NZD/USD is currently trading inside its retracement zone at .7106 to .7145.

The minor range is .6943 to .7180. Its 50% level at .7061 is a potential downside target and support price.

The major support zone comes in at .7027 to .6924.


Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

The direction of the NZD/USD on Monday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to .7145.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under .7145 will indicate the presence of sellers. This could trigger a break into .7106. Since the main trend is up, buyers could come in on a test of this level. If it fails to hold then look for the selling to possibly extend into the next 50% level at .7061.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over .7145 will signal the presence of buyers. If this move creates enough upside momentum then look for the buying to possibly extend into the main top at .7180.

Taking out .7180 will reaffirm the uptrend with .7204 to .7266 the next likely target zone.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.
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