NZD/USD Forex Technical Analysis – Testing Four-Month Retracement Zone at .7027 to .6924

The New Zealand Dollar is trading higher early Thursday on technical buying likely fueled by a reaction to oversold oscillators. Gains are likely being capped by demand for the safe-haven U.S. Dollar and a slight rise in U.S. Treasury yields.

The Kiwi hit its lowest level since November 24 on Wednesday as investors continued to bet measures to cool its red-hot housing market will lessen the likelihood of rate hikes.

At 05:17 GMT, the NZD/USD is trading .6980, up 0.0018 or +0.26%.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. The main trend will change to up on a move through .7270. This is highly unlikely, but due to the prolonged move down in terms of price and time, the NZD/USD is inside the window of time for a potentially bullish closing price reversal bottom.

The main range is .6589 to .7465. The NZD/USD is currently testing its retracement zone at .7027 to .6924. This zone is controlling the near-term direction of the Forex pair.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

The direction of the NZD/USD on Thursday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to .6962.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under .6962 will indicate the presence of sellers. The first downside target is the Fibonacci level at .6924, followed by the November 23, 2020 main bottom at .6897. This is a potential trigger point for an acceleration into the November 13 main bottom at .6811.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over .6962 will signal the presence of buyers. If this creates enough upside momentum then look for a potential surge into the main 50% level at .7027.