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James Hyerczyk

The New Zealand Dollar is edging lower against the U.S. Dollar early Monday after a surge in the global death toll from the coronavirus and a failure as yet by Congress to agree to an aid plan. U.S. Treasury yields also fell on the news as investors looked for protection.

Investors also sought protection in the U.S. Dollar as they shunned the riskier commodity-linked currencies like the New Zealand Dollar. The Kiwi also fell with the country’s bond yields after its central bank joined other countries in saying it will start buying bonds to stimulate the economy.

At 23:57 GMT, the NZD/USD is trading .5624, down 0.0081 or -1.41%.


Daily Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. A trade through .5469 will signal a resumption of the downtrend.

A trade through .6448 will change the main trend to up. This is highly unlikely, but there is room for a normal 50% to 61.8% correction.

The short-term range is .6448 to .5469. Its retracement zone at .5959 to .6074 is the primary upside target.


Daily Technical Forecast

Based on the early price action and the current price at .5624, the direction of the NZD/USD the rest of the session on Monday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the steep downtrending Gann angle at .5648. This angle has been guiding the NZD/USD lower since the March 9 main top at .6448.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over .5648 will indicate the presence of buyers. Taking out Friday’s close at .5880 will indicate the buying is getting stronger. This could trigger an acceleration to the upside with the next target the short-term 50% level at .5959.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under .5648 will signal the presence of sellers. If this creates enough downside momentum then look for the selling to possibly extend into last week’s 11-year low at .5469.

The low at .5469 is a potential trigger point for an acceleration to the downside with the next major target the March 4, 2009 main bottom at .4892.

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