Oil Price Forecast: Iran Sanctions Put WTI and Brent Breakouts in Focus

Oil prices are steady on Tuesday after more than 2% decline during the last trading session. Brent oil trades around $93.50, while WTI oil trades above $85. The United States expanded the secondary sanctions against Iran but did not specify immediate punishment for any countries. Washington also appears to favor economic pressure over direct military action. This helped ease concerns of immediate disruptions to Middle East oil supplies and allowed traders to profit on the recent rally.

But the sanctions could still have an impact on Iranian oil exports if major buyers decide to cut their business with Iran. Shipping hazards are still high. A tanker was hit off the coast of Oman, and Iran threatened to take action against those who did not comply with the rules in the Strait of Hormuz. The strategic reserves of the U.S. have also declined to the lowest level since 1982. These risks have kept geopolitical premium on oil prices and have potential to lead to further price increases if shipping disruptions escalate.

WTI Oil Technical Analysis: $90 Breakout Targets $100-$105

WTI crude oil has been consolidating below the descending trend line that stretches from the April 2026 highs. The consolidation below this trend line looks very constructive. A break above $90 in WTI crude oil will likely push prices towards the $100-$105 area.

The strong bullish price structure for WTI crude oil is also observed on the weekly chart. The chart shows that the 10 SMA is turning higher while the weekly candles for the past two weeks remain strong.

The price attempted to close exactly at the 20 SMA last week. This indicates that the short term strength in WTI crude oil remains strong. The price remains above the key $80.50 level and the RSI also remains above the midline.

These conditions point to a positive outlook. But the strong volatility after the $120 peak in WTI crude oil indicates strong uncertainty about the short term direction of the WTI crude oil market.

Brent Oil Technical Analysis: $100 Breakout Puts $120 in Focus

Brent crude oil also shows constructive price action as the price stays above the $90 area. The strong rebound from the $72-$74 area in Brent crude oil indicates positive momentum.

Therefore, if Brent crude oil remains above the $85 area, the possibility of a strong move toward $100 remains high in the short term. A break above $100 may push Brent crude oil back towards $120. The RSI remains above the midline which points to a positive outlook in the short term.

The weekly chart for Brent crude oil also shows constructive price action above the $80 area. The 50 SMA on the weekly chart is crossing above the 200 SMA, which indicates positive trend.

A confirmed break above $100 in Brent crude oil will likely increase the possibility of a strong move toward the $120 area. The RSI also remains above the midline on the weekly chart, which points to further upside.

Bottom Line

The outlook for oil remains constructive but uncertainty is still high. U.S. sanctions on Iran and shipping risks in the Strait of Hormuz may keep the geopolitical premium in prices. WTI must break above $90 to target the $100-$105 area. Brent must remain above $85 and break $100 to open the way toward $120. But a shift from military action to economic pressure may limit immediate supply fears. The next move in the oil market will depend on Iran’s exports, shipping conditions and whether the key technical levels hold.

Read more: Strait of Hormuz Risks Keep WTI and Brent Near Key Breakouts