Silver (XAG) Forecast: Cautiously Bullish as Powell Speech Looms and 50-Day Average Holds

Silver Holds Pivotal Support Ahead of Powell Speech—Will the 50-Day Moving Average Hold?

Silver is edging lower on Friday as traders position ahead of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s Jackson Hole address at 14:00 GMT. Yesterday’s breakout attempt above the pivot at $37.87 lost momentum, but the market continues to hold above the key 50-day moving average, which is currently at $37.50.

At 12:13 GMT, XAG/USD is trading $37.83, down $0.33 or -0.86%.

Fed Uncertainty and Dollar Strength Apply Pressure

The Federal Reserve’s rate cut outlook remains murky. FedWatch pricing now shows a 71–73% chance of a 25-basis-point cut in September—down sharply from 85.4% last week. This repricing has given fresh strength to the U.S. dollar, with the DXY climbing to 98.71, near a two-week high. A stronger dollar continues to pressure precious metals by dampening foreign demand.

Gold is under similar pressure, trading below its 50-day moving average at $3346.00. Its inability to reclaim that level has turned attention to silver’s ability to hold support. As silver often tracks gold’s macro moves, any hawkish signal from Powell could weigh on both metals.

Support Cluster Tightens—Buyers Lean on $37.50

The 50-day moving average at $37.50 is the central level traders are defending. Nearby pivots at $37.47 and $37.40 provide added support, creating a short-term floor. Buyers are expected to continue stepping in at these levels as long as the broader Fed tone remains neutral to slightly dovish.

If silver breaks below $37.40, selling could accelerate toward $36.96. A deeper breakdown may target the July 31 low at $36.21, where sell stops are likely concentrated. On the upside, the first key resistance is at $38.74—a break above opens the door to the 14-year high at $39.53. Price action around this resistance will be critical, as momentum traders may look to add size if silver clears that level convincingly.

All Eyes on Powell for Direction

Today’s Powell speech is the clear inflection point. A dovish tone could spark renewed interest in silver and help drive a move through resistance. But if Powell emphasizes inflation concerns or signals patience on rate cuts, silver may struggle to hold its support zone. Treasuries and dollar reaction post-speech will also be important secondary signals.

Near-term outlook: cautiously bullish unless the 50-day moving average fails as support.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.