S&P 500: Bitcoin Rally Drives Coinbase Higher as Stock Futures Rebound

Stock Futures Are Bouncing but the Long Bond Has Not Changed Its Mind

Futures are higher Friday morning after Thursday’s yield-driven selloff took the S&P 500 down 0.9% and the Nasdaq 1%. The early bid is a bounce after heavy selling. It is not proof that buyers have regained control.

The weekly damage is already there. The S&P 500 is down 1.9%. The Nasdaq has lost 2.5%. Both indexes are in danger of ending three-week winning streaks. The Dow is down 1.8% and could post a second straight weekly loss. Treasury’s buyback announcement gave stocks one session of relief. The bond market took it back Thursday. The 30-year yield is still near 5.237% Friday morning.

Gold and bitcoin are running harder than stock futures. The dollar broke below 99 and gold cleared its 200-day moving average. Bitcoin gained about 23% on the week after short-covering met lower yields and a friendlier policy discussion out of Washington. Money is finding different places to express the same concern about the dollar, debt and the bond market.

Dow futures were up 199 points or 0.4%. S&P 500 futures gained 0.3%. Nasdaq-100 futures rose 0.6%.

The Buyback Bought Time and the Bond Market Used It Up in One Session

Treasury expanded its longer-dated buyback operations to at least $4 billion for bonds maturing in 10 to 30 years. Yields fell hard Wednesday. They came back Thursday. The 30-year is near 5.237% Friday. The 10-year is around 4.688%. The two-year is little changed near 4.183%.

The government can buy older bonds. It cannot stop issuing new ones. The deficit, future borrowing needs and the constant pipeline of new paper are all still sitting on the other side of that trade. Shifting funding toward shorter-term bills changes the maturity mix but does nothing to shrink the total debt load, and the bond market figured that out in about 24 hours. Wednesday’s relief disappeared Thursday because traders understood they were looking at a liquidity operation, not a fiscal fix.

Stocks are bouncing Friday because the selling paused, not because the cost of capital came down. The 30-year near 5.24% is still expensive enough to pressure growth names and make stock valuations harder to defend.

Crude Held Most of the Week’s Gains and the Fed Cannot Ignore It

Crude oil is lower Friday morning but the decline has not undone the weekly move. Brent closed above $93 Thursday for the first time since late July. WTI held most of its advance. Washington is preparing tougher sanctions against Tehran. The Strait of Hormuz is still restricted. The diplomatic path is going nowhere.

Higher fuel costs feed into the next round of inflation reports. The FOMC minutes this week showed officials are still prepared to raise rates. Thursday’s selloff in stocks was not just about one yield level. It was about the cost of capital rising while crude holds near the highs at the same time.

Gold Broke Through the 200-Day on the Dollar’s Decline

Gold is on track for a weekly gain of more than 3.5%. Spot gold traded above $4,588 Friday. The metal cleared the 200-day moving average and entered a retracement zone that has been the upside target since the June bottom.

The dollar broke below 99 and is headed for a weekly loss of nearly 1%. September hike odds have faded toward the mid-60% range for a hold. Gold took both signals and ran through resistance that had been capping rallies for months. Newmont and Barrick Gold are moving with the metal. SPDR Gold Shares and iShares Gold Trust are tracking the rally.

SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) are indicated higher based on the overnight trade. The early price action points to an opening near $421.43.

Earlier in the week, the market crossed to the strong side of a kehttps://www.fxempire.com/crypto/spdr-gold-trust-dinari-tokenized-etfy 50% level at $406.00, making it new support. Yesterday, GLD settled over the 200-day moving average at $413.19, setting up the potential for follow-through buying.

A gap-higher opening today will also put the market on the strong side of a Fibonacci level at $416.80, which could turn this level into additional support.

Traders are eyeing the May 29 main top at $421.82 as today’s first objective. The next target price is the May 7 swing top at $437.42.

Bitcoin Gained 23% on the Week as Short Sellers Got Squeezed

Bitcoin traded near $77,227 Friday and is headed for a weekly gain of about 23%. The rally started when Treasury’s buyback announcement knocked yields lower. Short-covering did most of the immediate work. Billions of dollars in bearish crypto positions were forced out as prices climbed.

Policy talk added fuel. Traders are watching possible new rules for the industry and are willing to own the group while Washington sounds more open to it. Bitcoin is still well below its 2026 high and its all-time high. The rally is a sharp repricing after a crowded short trade met lower yields and a friendlier policy discussion. Strategy is higher in premarket. ProShares Bitcoin Strategy ETF also gained.

Coinbase is indicated sharply higher on Friday, with early price action pointing to a gap-higher opening near $180.30. Taking out the swing top at $181.49 will reaffirm the uptrend, which would make the 200-day moving average at $199.25 the next major objective. Key support is the 50-day moving average at $157.86.

Daily September E-mini S&P 500 Index Technical Analysis

September E-mini S&P 500 Index futures are edging higher early Friday, but trading inside yesterday’s range. This price action typically indicates investor indecision and the potential for increased volatility.

The strongest move the index could make today would be a surge through yesterday’s high at 7746.50 and a breakout over the short-term pivot at 7748.25. This type of move could shift momentum to the upside.

Right now, momentum is pointed toward the downside because the minor trend has turned down. Taking out yesterday’s low at 7657.75 will reaffirm the weakness. This could lead to the support cluster formed by the 50-day moving average at 7583.61 and the short-term 50% level at 7581.25, respectively. We could see a technical bounce on the first test of this area, but if it were to fail, we could see an acceleration to the downside.

What to Watch

The 30-year yield is still near 5.24% after eating through Treasury’s one-session relief. Crude held most of its weekly gains. The Fed spent the week making clear another hike is still on the table. Futures are higher Friday morning into a weekend where none of those problems have been resolved.

The S&P is trading inside Thursday’s range with the minor trend down and momentum pointed lower. The support cluster near the 50-day moving average is where the market finds out whether this is a dip buyers want or the start of something larger. Gold cleared its 200-day and is running on the dollar break. Bitcoin gained 23% on the week. The stock market has not earned the same confidence. It is borrowing a bounce from a bond market that has not finished repricing.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.