S&P 500 and Nasdaq Stall Near Record Highs as Traders Eye Fed and Earnings Misses

U.S. equity futures paused early Thursday after a two-day rally pushed both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite to fresh record highs. Traders dialed back risk as disappointing earnings and caution ahead of economic data tempered enthusiasm around Fed rate-cut hopes triggered by a softer July CPI.

The S&P 500 futures traded flat at 6,485.50 after notching a new high of 6,502.50, while Nasdaq 100 futures hovered near 23,934.00, just below Wednesday’s 24,068.50 intraday peak. Dow Jones futures held at 45,018.00 following a strong recovery off support near 43,700.

Will the Federal Reserve Reinforce Rate-Cut Hopes?

Cooling consumer inflation sparked optimism for a potential policy pivot at the Fed’s September meeting. Traders now look to Thursday’s PPI and jobless claims data for confirmation.

Economists expect July producer prices to rise 0.2%, a modest pickup after a flat June. Sam Stovall of CFRA noted that despite expectations for M/M and Y/Y PPI gains, investors remain focused on easing speculation rather than headline prints.

Treasury yields were largely steady ahead of the data, with the 10-year yield holding around recent lows. If wholesale prices come in cooler than forecast, it could solidify bets on a rate cut and provide a fresh catalyst for index breakout attempts.

Earnings Disappointments Pressure Cisco and Deere

Corporate earnings provided headwinds Thursday. Cisco shares slipped over 1% premarket after narrowly beating fourth-quarter estimates with adjusted EPS of $0.99 versus the expected $0.98, and revenue of $14.67 billion just above consensus. The company’s guidance did little to excite bulls, causing a 3% pullback in after-hours trade.

Deere fared worse, dropping over 7% after issuing full-year net income guidance of $4.75–$5.25 billion, with the top end falling short of its prior $5.5 billion projection. This weighed on industrials, a key sector for Dow futures.

Tech Moves Mixed as Ibotta and Coherent Slide

Ibotta plunged 21% after missing Q2 estimates, posting $0.08 EPS versus the expected $0.19, and lowering Q3 revenue guidance. Semiconductor name Coherent also fell sharply, despite topping earnings and revenue expectations, as news broke it will divest its aerospace and defense segment for $400 million. Shares slid over 16% on the announcement.

In contrast, Bullish surged 3% in post-market after a strong IPO debut. The crypto exchange opened at $90, well above its $37 IPO price, before closing at $68, still up 84%.

What Should Traders Watch Next?

Despite minor pullbacks, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq remain firmly above their 50-day SMAs (6,260.8 and 22,884.2 respectively), with the Dow also reclaiming key moving averages. Bulls will look for confirmation from Thursday’s economic data before committing to new highs.

Key levels to monitor include support at 6,261.00 for the S&P, 22,884.50 for the Nasdaq, and 44,388 for the Dow.

A PPI miss could be the next catalyst to extend the rally, while another round of soft earnings may weigh on sentiment into the weekend.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.