S&P500 and Nasdaq 100: US Indices Eye Fresh Highs After Earnings Surge

Stocks Push Toward Record Highs as Earnings Carry the Week

June E-mini S&P 500 Index futures are up 0.5% Friday morning and the Nasdaq is leading. Strong earnings did the heavy lifting this week and the bulls are not done yet. The jobs report lands later today and that is the last test before the weekend.

Technical Outlook

June E-mini S&P 500 Index futures are edging higher on Friday, putting the contract in a position to challenge yesterday’s record high at 7410.50. Ahead of the opening, nearby support is a series of pivots at 7305.00, 7271.00 and 7245.00.

The first true support is the minor swing bottom at 7199.50, followed by 7131.25 and 7079.25. Taking out 7199.50 will change the minor trend to down and shift momentum to the downside.

The uptrend is powerful. We see no resistance so our focus is not on picking a top but rather catching the pattern that could be signaling the top like a closing price reversal. Actually, any break in the current bullish pattern will produce red flags that could be indicative of a near-term top. These red flags could be the failure at the pivots or taking out swing bottoms. Another could be two consecutive lower-lows, something we haven’t seen since late March.

The key is we’re just watching for signs of a top, we’re not trying to guess the top. For those of you expecting a crash, keep in mind that crashes often happen weeks after a top so there will be time to plan. The key at this time is don’t guess.

June E-mini Nasdaq-100 Index futures are higher on Friday, ready to challenge another record high. A trade through 28944.75 will reaffirm the uptrend.

Since bottoming on March 31 at 22961.50, only two swing bottoms have been produced. This is a sign of a powerful market. Swing bottom support comes in at 27009.50 and 24904.00.

The nearest pivot support is 27977.25, followed by 26924.75 and 25953.25. 50-day moving average support is at 25672.24 and 200-day moving average support comes in at 25430.06.

There is no resistance at this time so like the S&P 500 Index, our focus is on the chart pattern. At this point in the rally, any break in the pattern of higher-highs and higher-lows could be a signal of a shift in momentum. Taking out 27009.50 will be the first sign of a change in trend.

The first sign that the selling may be greater than the buying at current price levels will be a closing price reversal top and subsequent reversal.

Middle East Still in the Room

The U.S. and Iran exchanged fire near the Strait of Hormuz Thursday and the market barely flinched. That tells you everything about where trader psychology is right now. Trump said the Navy took no damage and called the ceasefire still intact. June WTI crude oil edged up 0.1% on the news and went right back to doing nothing. When oil barely moves on a shooting incident near the Strait, this market is not pricing in escalation. It is pricing in resolution and buying everything in front of it.

Earnings Did the Work This Week

I’ve been watching earnings seasons for a long time and this one has been unusually clean on the upside. The Nasdaq is on pace for a nearly 3% weekly gain and technology is driving it. The S&P 500 is heading for a 1.5% weekly advance. The Dow is lagging but that is a composition story, not a market story.

The winners this week were decisive. Akamai Technologies surged 27% on a $1.8 billion AI cloud infrastructure deal. IREN Limited jumped more than 8% after announcing an AI partnership with Nvidia backed by a $2.1 billion investment. JFrog gained nearly 16% after raising its outlook and Rocket Lab rose 7% on strong revenue and new contracts.

The losers were just as decisive. CoreWeave dropped 7% on weak revenue guidance. Trade Desk tumbled nearly 13% on soft forecasts. Cloudflare plunged 18% after announcing job cuts and Upwork fell hard after revealing a 24% workforce reduction. Coinbase slipped after reporting a surprise quarterly loss with weaker transaction revenue.

Jobs Report Is the Last Piece

Economists are looking for 55,000 jobs added in April with the unemployment rate holding at 4.3%. That is a significant step down from recent prints and the market knows it. A miss and rate cut expectations move forward, yields drop and this rally gets another leg. A beat and the higher for longer trade reasserts itself. Either way the chart is telling me not to pick a top until the pattern breaks. Right now it has not broken. The pivots are holding and the swing bottoms are intact. That is the only read that matters going into the number.

What to Watch

The jobs number hits before the open and that is where Friday gets decided. Watch the pivot at 7305.00 on the June E-mini S&P 500 on any pullback. Hold above it and the aggressive buyers are still running this market. Lose it and 7199.50 is the next test and that is where the momentum question gets answered.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.