The Day Ahead: Markets Look to Rebound Today on Tariff Risks, Economic Data, and Earnings

Market Overview

U.S. stock futures are modestly higher Monday despite lingering concerns over inflation and trade policy. As of early trade, S&P 500 futures are up 0.41%, Nasdaq 100 futures have added 0.44%, and Dow futures are higher by 0.35%, or 153 points.

The rebound follows a sharp weekly pullback across all major indexes—S&P 500 -2.4%, Dow -2.9%, and Nasdaq -2.2%—the worst week for the Dow since April and for the S&P since May.

Friday’s session closed deeply negative after a weaker-than-expected July jobs report, coupled with fresh tariff headlines from the Trump administration. New executive action imposed revised “reciprocal” tariffs—ranging from 10% to 41%—on multiple trading partners, including Taiwan and Syria, which has reignited inflation and recession concerns.

Historically, August has been a weak month for equities. It is the worst-performing month for the Dow since 1988 and the second-worst for the S&P and Nasdaq.

Key Economic Releases

At 14:00 GMT, Factory Orders (m/m) for June are due. The forecast is for a sharp pullback of -4.9%, down from +8.2% in May. A deeper-than-expected decline would reinforce slowdown concerns and reduce the odds of near-term Fed easing.

The Senior Loan Officer Survey is also expected Monday (time tentative). While typically low profile, this report offers insight into credit availability and lending standards. Given last week’s soft jobs data and tighter financial conditions, traders will be watching for signs of credit contraction that could further impact economic momentum.

Notable Earnings

Palantir Technologies (PLTR) reports before the bell with elevated expectations. The stock has surged 110% YTD and recently posted a new all-time high. Analyst consensus sees Q2 EPS at $0.14 on revenue of $936.2M, +38.1% YoY. However, valuation remains stretched at ~189x 2026 free cash flow estimates. Market response may hinge on forward guidance amid intensifying competition.

Key names reporting before the open include onsemi (ON), Tyson Foods (TSN), IDEXX Labs (IDXX), and BioNTech (BNTX). After the close, earnings highlights include Vertex Pharmaceuticals (VRTX), Williams Cos (WMB), and Axon (AXON).

Commodities, Crypto, and Bonds

Crude oil is modestly lower despite OPEC+ announcing a 547,000 barrel-per-day output hike for September. Brent crude is down 0.2% at $69.53, while WTI trades near $67.27. Oversupply concerns are weighing on price action.

Gold is off 0.22% at $3,355.37 per ounce following a prior 2% spike. Analysts at Citi see upside toward $3,500/oz in the next three months, citing deteriorating macro conditions and inflationary pressure from tariffs.

Technical Outlook

S&P 500 E-mini futures (ES) last traded at 6,288.25, bouncing after a two-day decline from the 7/31 high of 6,468.50. Immediate resistance sits at the record high at 6,468.50. Support levels are layered at 6,187.00 (50-day MA), 6,019.44 (200-day MA), and 5,959.00.

Nasdaq 100 E-mini futures (NQ) last printed 22,986.50. Resistance lies at the record high at 23,845.00. Support comes in at 22,582.00, 22,548.60 (50-day MA), followed by 21,481.77 (200-day MA) and 21,566.75.

Dow futures (YM) are trading at 43,847. Key resistance is at recent high of 45,312. Support includes 43,762.00 (50-day MA) and 43,606.00 (200-day MA). A failure to hold the latter could trigger an even steeper decline into 42088 and 41552.

Outlook

Markets face a critical test this week with tariff fallout and a weakening labor backdrop pressuring sentiment. While futures are attempting a rebound, upside conviction may be limited unless earnings results and macro data surprise to the upside. Caution remains warranted heading into the historically volatile month of August.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.