The Week Ahead: Markets Brace for CPI, Apple Launch, and Fed Signals

Market Overview

The S&P 500 rose 0.3% to 6,482 last week, the Nasdaq gained 1.1% to 21,700, and the Dow slipped 0.3% to 45,401. Despite a mixed week, all three indexes remain in bullish weekly structures, holding above their 52-week moving averages.

Labor market softness took center stage. The August payrolls report showed just 22,000 jobs added, well below the 75,000 forecast. Unemployment rose to 4.3%, the highest of the year. Job openings also dropped below the number of unemployed for the first time since 2021—another sign of slowing demand.

Markets responded by fully pricing in a Fed rate cut at the September 17 FOMC meeting. Bond yields fell sharply, with the 2-year under 3.5% and the 10-year at 4.09%. The steepening yield curve has supported financials and credit-sensitive sectors.

Attention now turns to inflation. With both CPI and PPI due this week, traders will look for confirmation that tariff-driven price pressures are peaking. These releases are the final inflation inputs before the Fed’s upcoming decision.

Key Economic Releases & Notable Earnings

Monday, Sep 8
• Before the Open:
– Planet Labs (PL), est. -$0.05
• Economic Releases:
– 15:00 GMT: Consumer Credit (Jul), forecast $10.4B (prior $7.4B)
• After the Close:
– Casey’s General Stores (CASY), est. $5.05
– Mission Produce (AVO), est. $0.14
• Nvidia (NVDA), AMD (AMD) present at Goldman Sachs Communacopia + Technology Conference

Tuesday, Sep 9
• Before the Open:
– Core & Main (CNM), est. $0.77
– Hello Group (MOMO), est. $1.94
– Korn Ferry (KFY), est. $1.24
– SailPoint (SAIL), est. $0.04
• Economic Releases:
– 10:00 GMT: NFIB Small Business Optimism Index (Aug), forecast 100.4 (prior 100.3)
– 14:00 GMT: Q1 Employment Revisions (QCEW)
• After the Close:
– GameStop (GME), est. $0.19
– Rubrik (RBRK), est. -$0.34
– Synopsys (SNPS), est. $3.77
– AeroVironment (AVAV), est. $0.33
– Calavo Growers (CVGW), est. $0.54
• Apple iPhone 17 launch event
• Meta Platforms (META), Broadcom (AVGO) present at Goldman Sachs Tech Conference

Wednesday, Sep 10
• Before the Open:
– Chewy (CHWY), est. $0.33 on revenue of $3.1B
• Economic Releases:
– 12:30 GMT: Producer Price Index (Aug), forecast 0.3% (prior 0.9%)
– 12:30 GMT: Core PPI (Aug), forecast 0.3% (prior 0.9%)
– 14:00 GMT: Final Wholesale Inventories (Jul), forecast 0.2% (prior 0.2%)
• After the Close:
– Oxford Industries (OXM), est. $1.18
• Microsoft (MSFT), Workday (WDAY) present at Goldman Sachs Tech Conference

Thursday, Sep 11
• Before the Open:
– Kroger (KR), est. $1.00
– Lovesac (LOVE), est. -$0.70
• Economic Releases:
– 12:30 GMT: Consumer Price Index (Aug), forecast 0.3% m/m (prior 0.2%), 2.9% y/y (prior 2.7%)
– 12:30 GMT: Core CPI (Aug), forecast 0.3% m/m (prior 0.3%)
– 12:30 GMT: Weekly Jobless Claims (week ending Sep 6), forecast 234K (prior 237K)
– 18:00 GMT: Monthly U.S. Federal Budget (Aug), forecast -$305.7B (prior -$291.1B)
• After the Close:
– Adobe (ADBE), est. $5.18 on revenue of $5.9B

Friday, Sep 12
• Economic Releases:
– 14:00 GMT: University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Prelim, Sep), forecast 58.0 (prior 58.2)
– 14:00 GMT: University of Michigan Inflation Expectations (Prelim, Sep), forecast 4.8%

Central Bank Activity

With Fed officials now in blackout ahead of the September 17 meeting, attention shifts entirely to the CPI report. Markets are fully pricing in a 25 bp cut, with rising odds of a 50 bp move. The inflation print will determine whether the Fed’s dual mandate shifts further toward price stability over labor strength.

Technical Outlook

• S&P 500: 6,482 (+0.3%), support at 6,343.86, resistance at 6,532.65. 52-week SMA at 5,916

• Nasdaq Composite: 21,700 (+1.1%), support at 20905.99, resistance at 21,878.81. 52-week SMA at 19,075

• Dow Jones: 45,401 (−0.3%), support at 43,340.68, resistance at 45,770.20, 52-week SMA at 42,904

The weekly structure remains bullish across major indexes, with momentum supported by lower yields and Fed cut expectations.

Outlook

This week is all about inflation. Thursday’s CPI report is the final major input before the Fed’s September decision and will either reinforce or challenge current easing expectations. Core pricing holding steady while headline ticks higher would support the soft-landing thesis.

Apple’s iPhone launch, Adobe’s earnings, and updates from Nvidia and Oracle add to the catalysts. With rate cut probabilities rising and labor weakening, equity bulls may find further support—unless inflation surprises to the upside.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.