The Week Ahead: Markets Focus on Shutdown Progress and Fed Commentary

Market Overview

U.S. equities finished lower last week as traders reacted to renewed valuation concerns in the artificial intelligence sector and uncertainty surrounding the ongoing government shutdown.

The Nasdaq Composite dropped 3.0%, marking its worst weekly loss since April, while the S&P 500 fell 1.6% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 1.2%.

Year-to-date, the Nasdaq is still up 19.1%, the S&P 500 has gained 14.4%, and the Dow is higher by 10.4%.

Stocks opened this week on a firmer tone as futures rose early Monday, supported by optimism that Senate lawmakers were nearing a deal to reopen the federal government. S&P 500 futures were up 0.76%, Nasdaq-100 futures gained 1.29%, and Dow futures added 0.24%.

The government shutdown remains the primary focus for traders after key economic reports—including CPI and PPI—were delayed. The lack of new inflation data is leaving markets to rely heavily on corporate earnings and Federal Reserve commentary for direction.

AI-linked valuations have come under pressure as investors reassess the sector’s sharp run-up since midyear. Despite the pullback, corporate fundamentals remain solid, with 82% of S&P 500 companies having beaten third-quarter earnings estimates, led by strong results from the “Magnificent Seven.”

Economic Releases & Notable Earnings

Monday, Nov 10
Before the Open:
• Barrick Mining (B), est. $0.60
• Bitdeer Technologies (BTDR), est. -$0.16
• Monday.com (MNDY), est. $0.88
• Tyson Foods (TSN), est. $0.84
• TreeHouse Foods (THS), est. $0.56
Economic Releases:
• 13:30 GMT – FOMC Member Daly Speaks
• 14:45 GMT – FOMC Member Musalem Speaks
• Tentative – Cleveland Fed Inflation Expectations (prior 3.5%)
After the Close:
• Occidental Petroleum (OXY), est. $0.51
• Paramount Skydance (PSKY), est. $0.40
• TechTarget (TTGT), est. -$0.24

Tuesday, Nov 11
Before the Open:
• Sea Limited (SE), est. $0.88
• SFL Corp. (SFL), est. -$0.03
Economic Releases:
• 11:00 GMT – NFIB Small Business Index, forecast 98.3 (prior 98.8)
After the Close:
• Amdocs (DOX), est. $1.82
• CAE Inc. (CAE), est. $0.14

Wednesday, Nov 12
Before the Open:
• GlobalFoundries (GFS), est. $0.38
• TransDigm Group (TDG), est. $10.04
Economic Releases:
• 14:20 GMT – FOMC Member Williams Speaks
• 15:20 GMT – FOMC Member Waller Speaks
• 16:30 GMT – FOMC Member Bostic Speaks
• 17:30 GMT – FOMC Member Miran Speaks
• 18:01 GMT – 10-Year Bond Auction (prior 4.12%)
After the Close:
• Cisco Systems (CSCO), est. $0.98

Thursday, Nov 13
Before the Open:
• Walt Disney (DIS), est. $1.02
• JD.com (JD), est. $2.75
Economic Releases:
• Tentative – CPI m/m, forecast +0.2% (prior +0.3%)
• Tentative – Core CPI m/m, forecast +0.3% (prior +0.2%)
• 17:00 GMT – Crude Oil Inventories, prior +5.2M
• 18:01 GMT – 30-Year Bond Auction (prior 4.73%)
After the Close:
• Applied Materials (AMAT), est. $2.11
• Globant (GLOB), est. $1.54

Friday, Nov 14
Before the Open:
• Spire (SR), est. -$0.40
Economic Releases:
• Tentative – PPI m/m (prior +0.3%)
• 14:20 GMT – FOMC Member Bostic Speaks
• 15:30 GMT – Natural Gas Storage, prior +33B

Central Bank Activity

A busy week of Fed appearances is set to fill the data void, with at least 11 policymakers scheduled to speak. Key remarks from Williams, Waller, and Bostic on Wednesday will be closely watched for clues about how the central bank interprets recent labor softness and delayed inflation data. Traders expect commentary to reinforce the Fed’s rate-cutting stance following September’s policy pivot.

Technical Outlook

Weekly Dow Jones Industrial Average Index

Dow Jones: 46,987.11 (-1.21%), support at 45,452.03, 43,340.68 then 52-week SMA 43,696.92, resistance at 48,040.64.

Weekly Nasdaq Composite Index (IXIC)

Nasdaq: 23,004.54 (-3.04%), support at 22,193.07, 20,905.99, then 52-week SMA 19,942.06, followed by 19,334.98, resistance at 24,019.99.

Weekly S&P 500 Index (SPX)

S&P 500: 6,728.80 (-1.63%), support at 6,550.78, 6,212.69, then 52-week SMA 6,093.62, followed by 5,943.23, resistance at 6,920.34.

All three major indices remain above their rising 52-week SMAs, indicating that the broader uptrend remains intact despite recent profit-taking.

Outlook

With inflation data postponed, the market’s near-term tone will hinge on Washington’s progress toward reopening the government and the tone of Fed communications. CPI readings, once released, will likely set the next major direction for both yields and equity sentiment.

AI valuations and concentration risks remain front and center, but earnings strength and a supportive Fed backdrop continue to underpin the longer-term bull case. Traders are likely to treat any further weakness as a buying opportunity while watching for confirmation that the shutdown resolution restores economic visibility.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.