The Week Ahead: Nvidia, PCE and Jackson Hole Test the Stock Market Rally

Market Overview

U.S. equities finished last week lower as rising long-term Treasury yields pressured technology shares and pulled the major indices away from record highs. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 53,277.01, down 0.85% for the week. The Nasdaq Composite finished at 26,180.45, down 2.05%, while the S&P 500 ended at 7,674.37, down 1.43%.

The bond market became the primary driver after the 30-year Treasury yield reached its highest level since 2007. Treasury’s decision to increase long-dated bond buybacks triggered a sharp one-day yield decline, but the relief faded as yields recovered Thursday. The market remains focused on deficits, new debt supply, inflation risk and the financing demands tied to the AI buildout.

The selling was concentrated in rate-sensitive growth stocks. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell about 5% for the week as traders cut exposure to the group most dependent on lower borrowing costs and continued data-center spending. The Dow held together better, but the long bond remains the issue for all three major indices.

The week’s primary catalysts are Core PCE, preliminary GDP, durable-goods orders, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech, and earnings from Nvidia, Marvell Technology, Salesforce, CrowdStrike and other large-cap technology companies.

Key Economic Releases & Notable Earnings

Monday, August 24

Before the Open

Napco Security Systems (NSSC), est. $0.39

PDD Holdings (PDD), est. $18.45

Economic Releases

14:00 GMT, Treasury Secretary Bessent Speaks

After the Close

No reports scheduled

Tuesday, August 25

Before the Open

Bank of Montreal (BMO), est. $2.69

Bank of Nova Scotia (BNS), est. $1.49

Dick’s Sporting Goods (DKS), est. $3.76

Economic Releases

12:15 GMT, ADP Weekly Employment Change, prior 9.5K

13:00 GMT, HPI m/m, forecast 0.2% (prior 0.3%)

13:00 GMT, S&P/Case-Shiller 20-City Home Price Index y/y, forecast 1.9% (prior 1.6%)

14:00 GMT, CB Consumer Confidence, forecast 90.3 (prior 90.8)

14:00 GMT, New Home Sales, forecast 620K (prior 628K)

14:00 GMT, Richmond Manufacturing Index, forecast 7 (prior 5)

20:30 GMT, API Weekly Statistical Bulletin

After the Close

Intuit (INTU), est. $3.58

Zoom Communications (ZM), est. $1.48

Semtech (SMTC), est. $0.61

HEICO (HEI), est. $1.51

Box (BOX), est. $0.40

Wednesday, August 26

Before the Open

Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF), est. $1.99

Dycom (DY), est. $4.70

Williams-Sonoma (WSM), est. $2.08

Kohl’s (KSS), est. $0.58

J.M. Smucker (SJM), est. $2.21

Economic Releases

12:30 GMT, Core PCE Price Index m/m, forecast 0.2% (prior 0.1%)

12:30 GMT, Preliminary GDP q/q, forecast 1.5% (prior 1.5%)

12:30 GMT, Core Durable Goods Orders m/m, forecast 0.5% (prior 0.7%)

12:30 GMT, Durable Goods Orders m/m, forecast 0.5% (prior 0.5%)

12:30 GMT, Personal Income m/m, forecast 0.2% (prior 0.2%)

12:30 GMT, Personal Spending m/m, forecast 0.1% (prior 0.3%)

14:30 GMT, Crude Oil Inventories, prior 4.4M

After the Close

Nvidia (NVDA), est. $2.09. Revenue is expected at $92.07 billion, with attention focused on AI demand, hyperscaler spending, gross margins and guidance.

Salesforce (CRM), est. $3.27

CrowdStrike (CRWD), est. $0.29

Synopsys (SNPS), est. $3.67

Okta (OKTA), est. $0.97

Thursday, August 27

Before the Open

Best Buy (BBY), est. $1.37

Burlington Stores (BURL), est. $2.19

Dollar General (DG), est. $2.01

Dollar Tree (DLTR), est. $1.13

Toronto-Dominion Bank (TD), est. $1.77

Economic Releases

12:30 GMT, Unemployment Claims, forecast 208K (prior 206K)

12:30 GMT, Goods Trade Balance, forecast -$99.9B (prior -$101.4B)

12:30 GMT, Preliminary Wholesale Inventories m/m, forecast 0.2% (prior 0.2%)

14:30 GMT, Natural Gas Storage, prior 16B

After the Close

Marvell Technology (MRVL), est. $0.93. Revenue is expected at $2.71 billion, with guidance for data-center interconnect demand in focus.

Autodesk (ADSK), est. $3.12

Workday (WDAY), est. $2.61

Ulta Beauty (ULTA), est. $6.19

Affirm (AFRM), est. $0.35

Friday, August 28

Before the Open

No reports scheduled

Economic Releases

13:45 GMT, Chicago PMI, forecast 57.8 (prior 57.6)

14:00 GMT, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh Speaks

14:00 GMT, Preliminary Benchmark Payrolls Revision, prior -911K

14:00 GMT, Revised University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment, forecast 51.0 (prior 51.0)

14:00 GMT, Revised University of Michigan Inflation Expectations, prior 4.3%

After the Close

No reports scheduled

Central Bank Activity

Thursday, August 27

Jackson Hole Symposium, Day 1

Friday, August 28

Jackson Hole Symposium, Day 2

Fed Chair Kevin Warsh Speaks, 14:00 GMT

Traders will watch Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech for his assessment of inflation, the rise in long-term Treasury yields and the policy framework after the Federal Reserve reduced its use of forward guidance.

Technical Outlook

Weekly Dow Jones Industrial Average Index

Dow Jones: 53,277.01 (-0.85%), support at 51,542.06, the 52-week SMA at 48,926.47, 45,057.28, resistance at 54,744.33.

Weekly Nasdaq Composite Index

Nasdaq: 26,180.45 (-2.05%), support at 24,425.34, the 52-week SMA at 23,881.16, 23,173.24, 20,987.12, 19,523.19, resistance at 26,875.52 and 27,190.21.

Weekly S&P 500 Index

S&P 500: 7,674.37 (-1.43%), support at 7,313.92, 7,237.85, the 52-week SMA at 7,005.51, 6,316.91, resistance at 7,816.70.

All major indices remain above rising 52-week SMAs, confirming an intact long-term uptrend.

Outlook

Core PCE, preliminary GDP, durable-goods orders and Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech are the week’s main economic tests. Nvidia and Marvell headline earnings, with Salesforce, CrowdStrike, Synopsys, Intuit, Zoom, Workday and Autodesk also providing updates on AI spending, enterprise demand and consumer activity.

The major indices begin the week above rising 52-week moving averages but with the Nasdaq and S&P 500 under pressure from rising long-term yields. Inflation data that supports a steady Fed outlook, combined with constructive Nvidia and Marvell guidance, would help restore the technology bid. Hot inflation data, higher crude oil prices or guidance that raises questions about AI spending would place key support levels under pressure.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.