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U.S. Dollar Moves Lower As Traders Stay Focused On Middle East: Analysis For EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/CAD, USD/JPY

By
Vladimir Zernov
Published: Jul 22, 2026, 17:01 GMT+00:00

Key Points:

  • EUR/USD gained some ground ahead of tomorrow's ECB decision.
  • USD/CAD moved lower as precious metals markets rallied.
  • USD/JPY remained stuck near the 163.00 level.
EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/CAD, USD/JPY Forecasts
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U.S. Dollar Index Is Stuck Near Resistance At 101.15 – 101.30

DXY 220726 4h Chart

U.S. Dollar Index is losing some ground despite rising Treasury yields. The yield of 2-year Treasuries settled above 4.30%, while the yield of 10-year Treasuries moved above 4.65%. Oil prices continue to move higher, but U.S. dollar does not get additional support.

From the technical point of view, U.S. Dollar Index is stuck below the resistance level at 101.15 – 101.30. In case this attempt is successful, U.S. Dollar Index will head towards the next resistance level, which is located in the 101.80 – 101.95 range.

EUR/USD Attempts To Rebound Ahead Of ECB Decision

EUR/USD 220726 4h Chart

EUR/USD gains some ground ahead of ECB Interest Rate Decision, which will be released tomorrow. Analysts expect that ECB will leave the interest rate unchanged at 2.4%. The deposit facility rate is expected to remain unchanged at 2.25%.

In case EUR/USD manages to settle above the resistance level at 1.1420 – 1.1435, it will head towards the next resistance level, which is located in the 1.1500 – 1.1515 range. RSI is in the moderate territory, so there is plenty of room to gain momentum in case the right catalysts emerge.

GBP/USD Pulls Back As Traders Focus On UK Inflation Data

GBP/USD 220726 4h Chart

GBP/USD is losing ground as traders focus on inflation data from the UK. Inflation Rate declined from 2.8% in May to 2.6% in June, compared to analyst forecast of 2.7%. Core Inflation Rate remained unchanged at 2.6%, while analysts expected that it would drop to 2.5%.

The nearest support level for GBP/USD is located in the 1.3335 – 1.3350 range. A move below the 1.3335 level will open the way to the test of the next support level at 1.3250 – 1.3265.

On the upside, GBP/USD needs to settle above the 1.3400 level to have a chance to gain upside momentum in the near term. If GBP/USD climbs above 1.3400, it will head towards the 50 MA at 1.3424. A move above the 50 MA will push GBP/USD towards the resistance at 1.3450 – 1.3465.

USD/CAD Retreats As Precious Metals Markets Move Higher

USD/CAD 220726 4h Chart

USD/CAD pulled back as traders focused on the rally in precious metals markets. Gold climbed towards the $4150 level, while silver moved towards the psychologically important $60.00 level. Other commodity-related currencies are losing ground in today’s trading session.

If USD/CAD declines below the 50 MA at 1.4075, it will move towards the support level, which is located in the 1.4010 – 1.4025 range.

On the upside, a successful test of the resistance at 1.4125 – 1.4140 will push USD/CAD towards the resistance level at 1.4235 – 1.4250.

USD/JPY Is Stuck Near 163.00

USD/JPY 220726 4h Chart

USD/JPY settled near the 163.00 level as traders worried about potential interventions from the Bank of Japan.

Today, traders also had a chance to take a look at the Exports report from Japan. The report indicated that Japan’s Exports increased by +19.3% year-over-year, compared to analyst consensus of +18.6%.

In case USD/JPY settles above 163.00, it will head towards the 165.00 level. RSI has recently moved back into moderate territory, so there is plenty of room to gain additional upside momentum in case the right catalysts emerge.

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About the Author

Vladimir ZernovFutures Trading Expert

Vladimir is an independent trader, with over 18 years of experience in the financial markets. His expertise spans a wide range of instruments like stocks, futures, forex, indices, and commodities, forecasting both long-term and short-term market movements.

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