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Christopher Lewis
USD/JPY daily chart, March 12, 2019

The US dollar has gone back and forth during the trading session on Monday to kick off the week, as we hover around the important 200 day EMA. The ¥111 level of course has been an area that has seen a lot of action, both recently and in the past. We do have the 50 day EMA underneath curling to the upside, so that is a potentially good sign for the buyers as well. However, on the other side of the equation we have a lot of resistance just above that could cause issues.

USD/JPY Video 12.03.19

The ¥111.50 level above is the beginning of at least a 50 point resistance barrier that’s going to be difficult to overcome. If we did, then you could see this market go towards the ¥113.50 level after that. Ultimately, if we turned around to break down below the ¥110 level, that would send this market down to the ¥108 level next from what I see. Overall, I would expect a lot of noise but I do think that it is only a matter time before we have to make a significant move. Keep in mind that this pair is highly levered to the S&P 500 at times, as it is a bit of a proxy for risk appetite. The more risk appetite people are willing to take on, typically the better off this pair does. This is also a marketplace that will be very sensitive to the 10 year note as per usual, with higher rates (than Japanese markets) helping the US dollar as well.

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