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Christopher Lewis

The US dollar initially tried to rally during the trading session on Thursday but gave back the gains as it looks like we are seeing a lot of trouble right around the ¥107.50 level. Ultimately, the market is likely to continue to go lower due to the fact there is a major “risk off” attitude with the initial jobless claims coming out as horrifically as they have. That being said, rallies could occur in short covering, but I think those short covering rallies that show signs of exhaustion should be sold into.

USD/JPY Video 03.04.20

A breakdown below the lows of the Wednesday session could send this market down towards the 160 and level, followed by the ¥105 level. In fact, I don’t really have an interest in buying this pair, but I do recognize that it is somewhat “neutral” as we are simply thrashing around in order to try to find some type of equilibrium. It’s very possible it might be in this general vicinity based upon the last couple of swings that we have seen. Nonetheless, this is a market that continues to be very noisy and I think that’s probably going to be the way going forward. Quite frankly, we are moving on the most recent headline, which of course involves the virus, jobs numbers, and a whole host of other things. Keep your position size small but recognize that there are some opportunities here and there. I suspect you are probably going to be better served waiting until the close of business on Friday to make some type of decision based upon a weekly candlestick to be honest though.

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