XRP News Today: Markets Brace for Ruling on Ripple Settlement; BTC Sees Sub-$100k

SEC vs. Ripple: XRP Braces for Settlement Ruling

It could be a crucial start to the week for Ripple, XRP, and the broader crypto market. The SEC vs. Ripple case will take center stage as investors await Judge Torres’ ruling on the proposed settlement terms. Ripple and the SEC filed a second joint motion on June 12, requesting an indicative ruling on vacating the injunction prohibiting XRP sales to institutional investors and reducing the penalty to $50 million.

Judge Torres rejected the first motion within seven days of the filing, crashing XRP from $2.5712 to a June 5 low of $2.0607.

While investors hope for a favorable ruling, Judge Torres could reject the motion, potentially throwing the SEC’s easy-crypto stance into disarray. If the courts reject the motion a second time, Ripple could progress with its cross-appeal, potentially forcing the SEC to continue its appeal against the Programmatic Sales of XRP ruling.

In July 2023, Judge Analisa Torres ruled that programmatic sales of XRP did not satisfy the third prong of the Howey Test, which concerns expectations of profits from the efforts of others. The summary judgment laid the platform for ETF issuers to consider filing XRP-spot ETF applications. A successful appeal against the Programmatic Sales ruling could potentially end the chances of an XRP-spot ETF approval.

What If Judge Torres Rejects the Second Filing?

Pro-crypto lawyer Bill Morgan recently remarked on the parties’ appeals, stating:

“It seems likely to me that had the SEC not filed an appeal of the summary judgment decision of Judge Torres, that Ripple would not have filed an appeal on the institutional sales part of the summary judgment decision (although we cannot be sure) and the parties would have just moved on based on the summary judgment and the final orders that were made by Judge Torres.”

Morgan concluded:

“The SEC’s new policy towards enforcement has encouraged Ripple to seek more than it would have been satisfied with or lived with before the SEC filed its appeal.”

Considering the SEC’s new approach to crypto, would Ripple progress with its cross-appeal if Judge Torres rejects the second filing?

Legal rulings have greater weight than a handshake. The SEC and Ripple could agree that the agency would no longer pursue breaches of US securities laws for XRP sales to institutional investors or through programmatic sales. However, things could change if the Democrats win the next Presidential Election and resume its war against crypto, potentially leading to fresh lawsuits.

Mismatch: Legal Limbo and XRP-Spot ETF Approval Odds

Despite XRP’s legal limbo, Polymarket puts the odds of a 2025 XRP-spot ETF approval at 88%. This is what happened to bitcoin (BTC) when the SEC approved BTC-spot ETF applications:

While an XRP-spot ETF market could send the token to record highs, one ETF issuer could be crucial to the success of a spot ETF market. Since launch, BlackRock’s (BLK) iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) has recorded total net inflows of $50,998 million versus the US BTC-spot ETF market’s total net inflows of $46,637 million.

BlackRock has been silent on plans for an XRP-spot ETF since November 2023. A fake iShares XRP-spot ETF Trust filing triggered a pump-and-dump rally, potentially delaying application plans until resolution of the Ripple case.

XRP Price Outlook: Court Rulings and ETF News

XRP fell 2.05% on Sunday, June 22, following Saturday’s 2.67% loss, closing at $2.0212. The token underperformed the broader market, which dropped 1.42% to a total crypto market cap of $3.06 trillion. Investor anxiety about Judge Torres’ looming decision left the XRP with heavier losses.

The near-term XRP price trajectory hinges on Judge Torres’ ruling, the parties’ appeal plans, and XRP-spot ETF developments.

A breakout above $2.1 could pave the way to the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA). A sustained move through the 200-day EMA may bring the 50-day EMA into play. Conversely, a drop below the $1.9299 support level could expose $1.8.

For a deeper dive, see our full XRP forecast here.

Bitcoin tumbles as Markets React to the US Bombing and Iran’s Response

While legal limbo impacted XRP demand, bitcoin plunged below $100,000 for the first time since May 8. News of the US bombing Iran’s three main nuclear sites and Iran’s response triggered a flight to safety, impacting BTC appetite.

On June 22, Iran’s parliament reportedly approved closing the Strait of Hormuz for the first time since 1972. If Iran’s Supreme National Security Council signs off, crude oil prices could spiral. Rising oil prices would likely fuel inflationary pressures, potentially ending the current sequence of rate cuts by key central banks that has bolstered the global economy.

The Kobeissi Letter discussed the potential impact of closing the Strait of Hormuz, stating:

“So, if inflation climbs 5% the Fed won’t be looking to cut rates like Trump wants. This would result in rate HIKES, cuts would no longer be a discussion.”

BTC Price Outlook: The Iran-Israel Conflict, Trade Headlines, and ETF Flows

BTC fell 1.17% on June 22, mirroring Saturday’s 1.17% loss, closing at $100,982. The near-term price trajectory hinges on several key factors, including the Iran-Israel war, trade headlines, and ETF flows.

Potential scenarios:

• Bearish Scenario: Iran closes the Strait of Hormuz, legislation setbacks, US tariff hikes, and ETF outflows. A combination of these may send BTC toward the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), potentially exposing $90,000.
• Bullish Scenario: De-escalation in the Middle East conflict, bipartisan support for the Bitcoin Act, easing trade friction, and ETF inflows. Under these scenarios, BTC could target its all-time high of $111,917.

What to Watch

Investors should track rulings from the Ripple case, legislative developments, Iran-Israel war-related updates, trade headlines, and ETF flows. These factors are vital for price trends. They may determine whether XRP or BTC revisits record highs.

Explore analyst forecasts on where XRP and BTC may head next as legal and political factors unfold.