XRP Price Forecast: 3 Charts Warn of a Drop Toward $1

XRP (XRP) fell over 4.5% to $1.33 early Monday as markets turned risk-off after Donald Trump revived tariff threats, offsetting the bullish read from a Supreme Court setback.

The dip brought my notice to three eerie charts that suggests XRP’s selloff is far from over. They include metrics tracking exchange flows, XRP’s cost basis, and technical structures.

XRP Deposits To Binance Raises Downside Risks

XRP Ledger “exchange inflow” value-band data shows a sudden surge of deposits to Binance, a venue often used for large transfers because of its deep liquidity.

On Feb. 21, more than 31 million XRP moved to the exchange, with large investors dominating the flows.

For instance, entities holding over 1 million XRP transferred 14.49 million tokens in a day, while those holding 100,000-to-1 million XRP deposited 14.24 million tokens to Binance.

At spot prices around $1.43 on the day, the transfer represented roughly $45 million in potential sell-side supply. That is because heavy deposits tend to increase the odds of distribution, especially when the market is already struggling to rally.

If these inflows persist, XRP’s rebounds may remain sellable, with large exchange balances acting as overhead supply.

XRP Drops Below Realized Price

XRP is having trouble reclaiming and holding above its realized price at around $1.40, a key on-chain level that reflects the aggregated average price paid for the circulating supply.

XRP trading below realized price suggests that the average holder is sitting on unrealized losses. Underwater markets often see stronger sell pressure into rallies as investors try to exit near breakeven.

The latest realized-price view suggests XRP slipped back toward this threshold after failing to sustain a rebound above it.

Historically, extended periods below realized price have lined up with weaker phases in crypto cycles, where breakouts fail more often and recoveries stay shallow.

For instance, in 2022, XRP price slipped to $0.30 a month after breaking below its realized price at around $0.60.

XRP Head-and-Shoulders Threatens Breakdown Toward $1.07

XRP has printed a head-and-shoulders topping pattern: a left shoulder near the mid-$1.40s, a head spike into the $1.60–$1.70 area, and a lower right shoulder.

The key level is the neckline around $1.33–$1.35. A decisive break and close below it would confirm the pattern and open a measured target near $1.07.

Momentum isn’t helping either, with XRP’s relative strength index (RSI) above the oversold threshold of 30, suggesting more room for declines.