Forecasts & Analysis, Page 8

USD/JPY traders should also pay attention to the Fed speakers this week. In June, Fed policymakers voted 9 to 1 to leave rates unchanged. St. Louis Fed President James Bullard voted for a rate cut. He has already said since then that 50-basis point rate cut is too excessive.

US equities ended last week at new record highs as investors became more confident of fresh stimulus measures by major central banks led by the Federal Reserve.

NEM’s XEM takes a hit early on but could find support from the broader market. A move through to $0.065 levels will be key.

Stronger numbers from China are likely to be supportive for the Aussie and Kiwi early in the week, but look for volatility to return and a potential change in trend later in the week with the release of the Australia labor market data and the New Zealand consumer inflation report.

With Pepperstone having launched CFD trading on US equities, and, with Q2 corporate earnings season ramping up this week, it’s a good time to assess the backdrop in which US corporates will report their numbers. And, just how important these earnings numbers could prove to be.

I believe the outcome of the past 6+ months with regards to global trade, currency devaluations, and consumer sentiment will result in weaker US earnings in Q2 than at any time over the past 3+ years.

Ripple’s XRP bucks the trend early. The rest could play catch up if Bitcoin holds onto early gains.

So why the muted reaction by gold to Powell’s revelation? I believe it is because gold traders along with Treasury traders had already priced in a 100% chance of a 25-basis point rate cut. So the key to whether prices move higher over the near-term will be whether the Fed

Crude Oil prices dropped after China posted its slowest quarterly economic growth in at least 27 years. On 1-Day Chart, the USD/CAD pair was forming a bearish rising wedge trading pattern.

I believe the outcome of the past 6+ months with regards to global trade, currency devaluations, and consumer sentiment will result in weaker US earnings in Q2 than at any time over the past 3+ years.

While economic data out of China came in better than expected this morning, a lack of stats will leave the European majors in the hands of Oval Office Chatter.

Fundamentally, after the Hurricane passes and the cool air leaves, it is expected to get hot. This may be able to produce short-term gains, but the early forecast doesn’t show it lasting long enough to put a serious dent in short-seller positions.

Bullish traders should be a little nervous early in the week because of uncertainty over flood damage from Hurricane Barry. If the flooding caused little or no damage, which would delay production, then prices could retreat as buyers trim positions placed ahead of the hurricane.

Based on last week’s price action and the close at 3015.50, the direction of the September E-mini S&P 500 Index on Monday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to last week’s high at 3018.00.

The direction of September E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average on Monday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to Friday’s high at 27330.

There are three possibilities on Monday. First, buyers can take out 7967.50 and the rally could just keep going. Second, the selling can be strong enough to prevent a trade through 7967.50. Third, buyers can take out 7967.50 then close lower for the session.

It’s safe to say that 2019 has had its fair share of dramatic events that have affected the currency markets; Brexit, the alteration of the European Bank Leadership and accelerating Iranian nuclear proliferation.

If hardline Brexiteer Boris Johnson becomes the next UK Prime Minister and “come what may” leads the United Kingdom out of the European Union on October 31 in a no-deal Brexit, the Pound will likely fall to levels not seen since early 2017 against the US Dollar.

Based on Friday’s price action and the close at $60.30, the direction of the September WTI crude oil futures contract on Monday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the main Fibonacci level at $60.18.

Based on Friday’s price action and the close at $1412.20, the direction of the August Comex gold market on Monday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the short-term pivot at $1413.80.