Natural Gas (NG) Forecast

Expectations are for a 57 Bcf Build

Natural gas markets initially fell during the trading session on Wednesday but found plenty of support near the $1.80 level to show signs of life again.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration on July 7 again lowered its estimates for natural gas marketed production for the rest of 2020.

Demand rises in the latest week

Natural gas markets broke higher on Tuesday as the heatwave in America continues. Demand has spiked, and it looks like we are going towards the $2.00 level.

The main trend changed to up on the daily chart. This move was likely fueled by a combination of short-covering and aggressive counter-trend buying.

Exports to Mexico are set to rise

Natural gas markets rallied to kick off the week, breaking above the 50 day EMA, reaching above the $1.80 level. The market is likely to see resistance.

Traders are looking 14 days out. So if the forecasts call for extended heat until at least July 19 then prices are likely to remain underpinned.

Natural gas markets rallied quite a bit during the week, as we are starting to see very hot temperatures in the United States and more bankruptcies.

Natural gas did truly little on Friday, but we remained near the resistance at $1.80. That in itself is a sign the buyers are still looking to take control.

With the exception of Thursday’s rally, most of the gains were attributed to hot weather and short-covering. And maybe some speculative buyers.

Inventories rise less than expected

Natural gas markets gapped higher to kick off the trading session on Thursday, and then went back and forth to show a lot of volatility.

If there is a rally, it will be traders betting on a hot weekend. If the market breaks then this will indicate traders have doubts about the heat.

Expectations are for an increase by 77 bcf

Natural gas markets have pulled back during the trading session on Wednesday, as the 50 day EMA is just above. This pullback might be a nice buying opportunity.

It’s going to take a huge jump in demand to scare out the major players. However, a two-week heat scare could be enough to shake out the weaker shorts.

LNG exports decline

Natural gas markets rallied initially during the trading session on Tuesday, reaching towards the 50 day EMA where there has been a little bit of resistance.